Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker

A single source reference on tropical weather predictions. With a traditional focus on the upper Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast we've maintained links to track all Atlantic Basin, Caribbean and eastern Pacific storm systems. We are now expanding our view to tropical storms throughout the world intending to be a comprehensive global storm tracking resource.

Friday, September 01, 2006

Ernesto Advisory

Ernesto Soaks Virginia, Carolinas
Wet Weather Not Stopping Holiday Travelers
Washington, DC Radar
State College, PA Radar

As the graphics show, the remnants of Tropical Storm Ernesto, now a tropical depression, are moving northward across the Carolinas and into Virginia. The storm track is expected to take it into Pennsylvania and eventually New York State throught the weekend. This si an area of the country that certainly has had an abundance of rain this summer so flooding will be a major concern. We will maintain coverage throughout the weekend and onward until the NWS discontinues alerts.


Ernesto is now back to a tropical storm. Looks like the mountains of Haiti did their thing in breaking down the hurricane. Stregnthening may occur once the storm emerges over water but will again be broken down once it contacts land again in Cuba.

Computer models continue to adjust the presictions for landfall further east after the storm enters the Gulf. Landfall in western Florida now seems to be the likly path. Each time I look at the predictions, the models move the storm's path further east.


To show how quickly situations can change, yesterday we were predicting that Ernesto could become a dangerous Gulf hurricane. Now Fox News is reporting that the storm's path is taking the storm over mountainous land as the storm crosses or passes Cuba. This is likly to lessen the intensity of the storm and could lead towards dissipation. So right now the storms strength at landfall is very unpredictable.
The concern is, of course, that the warm waters of the Gulf will cause Ernesto to strengthen and may cause damage to the oil platforms and potentially threaten New Orleans, Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. As the graphic shows, the computer models are already predicting a turn towards Florida after the storm enters the Gulf. Of course this far out and the accuracy of the models is questionable. People in Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana need to keep a vigilant watch at least into mid week.

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