Tropical Storm Hanna and other Atlantic developments
Tropical Storm Hanna has developed in the Atlantic Basin and is currently a weak tropical storm with 40 MPH winds.
The current predictions are very well converged for the next few days and then all bets are off. Sometime early next week Hanna has the potential to get caught up by the jet stream and be cast off into the North Atlantic away from land.
If the storm does not reach the jet stream at the right time, then landfall along the southeastern US or in the Bahamas is possible. Earlier this evening this seemed to be an even chance but the models have already been updated indicating less of a chance of this scenario playing out. This means that the Bahamas and the SE US may see activity from Hanna by the middle of next week.
Additionally, wind shear in the Atlantic is quite low which will allow Hanna to develop into a hurricane.
Overall at the moment, there are six areas of activity that are being watched in the eastern US, Atlantic and Gulf Basins. One of these is the remnants of Fay which is now raining out over the northeast. Fay has provided strong storms and flooding over most of the Appalachian Mountains. Two other areas of concern are, of course Gustav and Hanna.
Additionally an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche has a moderate chance of organizing into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Wind shear is low and water temperatures are high, but the proximity to land will prevent the storm from coming together. If this storm stays off the coast for enough time, we could have a 3rd named storm this weekend.
Another tropical wave has formed off of the African coast and could organize but it is far enough out that it will not affect our interests for at least a couple of weeks. And another area of disturbed weatehr in the central Atlantic could develop although the liklihood of that right now is fairly low.
Looks like 2008 has decided to be quite an active season.
The current predictions are very well converged for the next few days and then all bets are off. Sometime early next week Hanna has the potential to get caught up by the jet stream and be cast off into the North Atlantic away from land. If the storm does not reach the jet stream at the right time, then landfall along the southeastern US or in the Bahamas is possible. Earlier this evening this seemed to be an even chance but the models have already been updated indicating less of a chance of this scenario playing out. This means that the Bahamas and the SE US may see activity from Hanna by the middle of next week.
Additionally, wind shear in the Atlantic is quite low which will allow Hanna to develop into a hurricane.
Overall at the moment, there are six areas of activity that are being watched in the eastern US, Atlantic and Gulf Basins. One of these is the remnants of Fay which is now raining out over the northeast. Fay has provided strong storms and flooding over most of the Appalachian Mountains. Two other areas of concern are, of course Gustav and Hanna.
Additionally an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche has a moderate chance of organizing into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Wind shear is low and water temperatures are high, but the proximity to land will prevent the storm from coming together. If this storm stays off the coast for enough time, we could have a 3rd named storm this weekend.
Another tropical wave has formed off of the African coast and could organize but it is far enough out that it will not affect our interests for at least a couple of weeks. And another area of disturbed weatehr in the central Atlantic could develop although the liklihood of that right now is fairly low.
Looks like 2008 has decided to be quite an active season.
posted by KWR | 8:21 PM
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