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Saturday, August 29, 2009

Tropical Depression DANNY - downgraded again

Not surprisingly, Danny has once again been downgraded and is now a tropical depression. The remnants of Danny are still a cause for concern due to the dangerous surf that this storm is creating. One 12 year old boy who was board surfing has been pulled out to sea in North Carolina by the rip currents. The board washed up on shore but so far authorities have not been able to find the boy, either alive or deceased.
 
Even though Danny is now a tropical depression, the wave action along the entire east coast is likely to be dangerous. I suspect that we will see beach closings again this weekend as we did last weekend for Hurricane Bill.
 
Danny is expected to continue up the coast skirting along Cape Cod and crossing over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in the same path as Bill did last week. Danny's remnants will even reach Scotland and Ireland in about 5 days.
 
Danny will soon become extratropical, possibly as soon as later today. One thing that we have noticed is that it appears that Danny's forward motion may be slowing. Earlier track forecasts showed Danny to be in the NYC area by tonight moving quickly up the coast. The current maps show that Danny is located off Cape Hatteras, NC and seems to be closer to land than originally expected.
 
The final warning for Danny issued by TSR is listed below. Most of the other weather services are likely dropping their reports as well. However, we need to keep a weather eye along the coast. I suspect (my uneducated opinion) that Danny's remains may linger around the Carolinas creating problems throughout the day today until the front finally pushes the storm out to sea on Sunday or Monday.
 

Storm Alert issued at 29 Aug, 2009 9:00 GMT (Final Warning)
 
Tropical Depression DANNY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
 
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours
    St. Pierre and Miquelon
        probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
    the United States
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours
    Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours
    Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
    Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    St John's (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 45 hours
    Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Scotland
        probability for TS is 35% in about 117 hours
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 35% in about 117 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for TS is 35% in about 117 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours
    Bangor (44.5 N, 68.5 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 117 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 117 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 117 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 117 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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