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Friday, August 28, 2009

Fwd: TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm DANNY

Storm Alert issued at 28 Aug, 2009 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm DANNY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Canada
probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
St. Pierre and Miquelon
probability for TS is 90% in about 69 hours
the United States
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)
probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)
probability for TS is 90% in about 69 hours
St John's (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
probability for TS is 90% in about 69 hours
Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
probability for TS is 80% in about 45 hours
Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
probability for TS is 80% in about 45 hours
Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours
Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours
Bangor (44.5 N, 68.5 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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