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Thursday, August 27, 2009

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm DANNY

TSR has started issuing land fall alerts on Tropical Storm Danny. Projections are that Danny will become a hurricane in the next 12 - 24 hours as the shearing winds in the area die down. The probablility for Danny to make landfall in the U Sis listed below - danny may potentially threaten teh US coast anywhere from North Carolina to Long Island between today and the weekend.
 
Long Island and the New York metropolitan area is expected to feel at least some of the effects of Danny Saturday night and Sunday.
 

 
Storm Alert issued at 27 Aug, 2009 9:00 GMT
 
Tropical Storm DANNY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
 
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
    Bangor (44.5 N, 68.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours
    Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
    Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
    Montauk (41.0 N, 72.2 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

 

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