### TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane BILL

Storm Alert issued at 23 Aug, 2009 21:00 GMT

**Hurricane BILL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):**

**Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

Canada

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

St. Pierre and Miquelon

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

**Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

Scotland

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Ireland

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Northern Ireland

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

St John's (47.6 N, 52.7 W)

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)

probability for TS is 75% currently

Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)

probability for TS is 70% currently

Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

**Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

England

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

the Isle of Man

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Wales

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.4 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

York (54.2 N, 1.5 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Manchester (53.5 N, 2.3 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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