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Sunday, August 23, 2009

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane BILL

Storm Alert issued at 23 Aug, 2009 21:00 GMT
 
Hurricane BILL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
 
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    St. Pierre and Miquelon
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Scotland
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    St John's (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    England
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Wales
        probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.4 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
    Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
    Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
    Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
    Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
    York (54.2 N, 1.5 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
    Manchester (53.5 N, 2.3 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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