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Sunday, July 11, 2010

Tropical Depression forms in Western Pacific

A low pressure disturance has organized into Tropical Depression 3 and is likely to intensify into a tropical storm within the next 12 to 24 hours.

The system is forecast to cross northern Luzon Island as a tropical Storm and then weaken as it enters the South China Sea due to an increase in windshear. The projected track of this storm is along the tracks that were inundated last year by 3 separate typhoons including one that crossed the area 3 times.

Forecast Update (Typhoon2000)
Forecast Outlook: 03W (BASYANG) is expected to maintain its WNW track throughout its forecast and intensify as it moves towards Northern Luzon [2AM JUL 13: 15.2N 127.5E].

It will reach its peak strength of 95 kph by tomorrow & make landfall somewhere in Southern Isabela [2 AM JUL 14: 16.7N 123.0E] by Wednesday morning Jul 14.

03W is expected to lose strength upon traversing the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon Wednesday morning until the evening.

The 3 to 5-Day Long-Range Forecast shows the system exiting Ilocos Provinces by early Thursday [2AM JUL 15: 18.1N 120.4E] and will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Friday as it approaches Southern China on Saturday [2AM JUL 16: 20.0N 118.3E...2AM JUL 17: 21.7N 117.2E].

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