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Sunday, August 30, 2009

TSR Storm Alert - Intense Hurricane JIMENA

Hurricane Jimena has grown to become a massive Category 4 hurricane on course for the western coast of Baja California. The latest predictions show Jimena's storm track following right at the coastline which indicates that the peninsula will feel much of Jimena's punch. Jimena will reach Baja Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Category 4 Hurricane Jimena (AccuWeather)

Hurricane Jimena will threaten Cabo San Lucas and southern Baja California, Mexico, with hurricane conditions late Monday through Tuesday. Jimena has quickly become a large and powerful hurricane, reaching Category 4 strength Sunday morning. She was located about 515 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Winds had increased to 135 mph.

--snip--

Conditions will deteriorate on Monday. The outer rain bands will begin to affect the southern Baja. Hurricane-force winds will develop Tuesday. Winds over 100 mph are possible in Cabo San Lucas and the rest of the southern Baja Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.





Storm Alert issued at 30 Aug, 2009 21:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane JIMENA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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