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Saturday, August 29, 2009

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm KROVANH (UPDATED)

Tropical storm Krovanh continues to strengthen south of Japan and is expected to strike the Japanese coast in the next 1 - 2 days as a Cat 1 typhoon.

Japan travel advisory: Typhoon to hit Tokyo and northern Japan on Aug 31th and Sept 1st (Examiner)
Typhoon 11 (Tropical Storm Krovanh) is predicted to crash into Japan on August 31th and September 1st (JST), traveling from Tokyo north towards Hokkaido, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. Heavy rains, strong winds, and high waves are expected throughout central and northern Honshu. People in the area are advised to take care.

Typhoon 11 (Tropical Storm Krovanh) details

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency (as of 9:50am, August. 29th JST), the typhoon is expected to travel north, north-west directly towards the greater Tokyo area. It will reach Japanese shores sometime during the morning of the 31st.

Tropical Storm Krovanh is currently traveling north at about 15 knots (17 mph), with average wind speeds as strong as 40 knots (46 mph) and wind gusts reaching 60 knots (69 mph). Wind speeds are expected to reach an average of 55 knots (63 mph), with wind gusts up to 80 knots (92 mph) when it arrives to Japan on the 31st.

Storm Alert issued at 29 Aug, 2009 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KROVANH is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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