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Sunday, August 30, 2009

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm KROVANH

Tropical Storm Krovanh continues its steady march towards Japan. Forecasts are indicating that Krovanh may reach Typhoon strength before hitting land tomorrow.
 
Tropical Storm Krovanh to Bring Rain, Winds to Tokyo Tomorrow (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aJB2_RWX1Ags

Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Krovanh may bring rain and strong winds to the Tokyo metropolitan area as it passes off Japan's Pacific coastline tomorrow, according to the Web site of the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Krovanh was strengthening with winds of 55 knots (63 miles per hour) as it moved north-northwest at 13 knots, about 265 nautical miles south of Tokyo as of 5 p.m. Japan time. The storm is expected to approach the coast near Tokyo tomorrow before veering north- northeast.

Storm Alert issued at 30 Aug, 2009 18:00 GMT
 
Tropical Storm KROVANH is20forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
 
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS20is 40% in about 24 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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