Hurricane Jimena beginning her drive onto land

Hurricane Jimena has been packing 155 MPH winds since last night. Technically this is ONE MPH below a Cat 5 storm - as far as I am concerned we are there. As my post yesterday afternoon noted, the destructive power of this storm is very high.

 

One good thing is that Jimena will have a good deal of interaction with land before she actually makes landfall - the point where the eye of the hurricane crosses the coastline. As a result, considerable weakening is expected by the time the strongest winds come ashore. This needs to be understood with some caution... these weakened winds may still be as high as a Cat 3 - 110 MPH give or take.

 

All of the weather services are forecasting a fairly rapid decline in Jimena's strength but she will pack quite a punch at least for the southern half of the peninsula. Everyone in the area should already have their preparations in place and either be hunkered down away from the wind or have evacuated to higher ground.

 

Flash flooding is a major concern with this storm as much of the area is desert and as such is not suited for heavy rainfall. Please watch for rising water and remember - Run from the water, Hide from the wind.

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Storm Alert issued at 1 Sep, 2009 9:00 GMT

 

Intense Hurricane JIMENA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours
    Rosarito (26.5 N, 111.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Guerrero Negro (28.0 N, 114.1 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
    Guaymas (28.0 N, 111.0 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
    Punta Prieta (29.0 N, 114.2 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.