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Monday, August 31, 2009

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm KROVANH

Tropical Storm Krovanh is now skirting along the Japanese coast. From the tracking maps, it appears that this storm will not make landfall at all but instead brushed along the southern coastline.

Tropical Storm Brings Heavy Rain, High Winds to Tokyo (Bloomberg)

Tropical storm Krovanh approached Japan, bringing strong winds and heavy rain to Tokyo, forcing flight cancellations and halting shipments from oil refineries.

The center of Krovanh, the 12th storm of the western Pacific cyclone season, was 168 kilometers (104 miles) east of Tokyo at 7 p.m. local time, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

The storm’s maximum sustained winds measured 102 kilometers per hour, down from 111 kph earlier today. Krovanh was moving north-northeast at 30 kph, the agency said.

Krovanh is the second storm to approach Japan this month. The Tokyo area has also been rocked by three earthquakes in August, including a magnitude-6.5 quake that left one woman dead on Aug. 11. Twenty-three people died in flooding and storms attributed to Tropical Storm Etau, according to Japan’s Fire and Disaster Management Agency.

The weather agency issued warnings for heavy rain, high waves and stormy weather for Tokyo, neighboring Chiba prefecture, the location of Japan’s biggest international airport near Narita, and areas to the north. Krovanh was expected to bring as much as 5 centimeters (2 inches) of rain per hour.

Storm Alert issued at 31 Aug, 2009 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KROVANH is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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