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Tuesday, October 20, 2009

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm RICK

Tropical sotrm Rick is now coming ashore in the most southern portion of Baja California. Rick has been downgraded to a tropical storm and continues to lose strength. He is expected to be a topical depression before striking the mainland tomorrow.


Moisture from the remnants of this storm will then spread across south Texas which is in great need of rain due to a deep drought that has been in place since before the summer. By the end of the week, rain from Rick will spread across the entire southland into northern Alabama and Georgia.
Storm Alert issued at 20 Oct, 2009 21:00 GMT


Tropical Storm RICK is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
Mazatlan (23.4 N, 106.3 W)
probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
Tecuala (22.4 N, 105.5 W)
probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
Culiacan (24.8 N, 107.4 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Durango (24.0 N, 104.7 W)
probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours
Tepic (21.5 N, 104.9 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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