Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker

A single source reference on tropical weather predictions. With a traditional focus on the upper Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast we've maintained links to track all Atlantic Basin, Caribbean and eastern Pacific storm systems. We are now expanding our view to tropical storms throughout the world intending to be a comprehensive global storm tracking resource.

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Tropical Storm (Hurricane) Florence Advisory

Both the National Hurricane Center and the US Navy are showing that the path of Tropical Storm Florence is likely to turn north over the weekend. More of the computer models are also predicting a northward turn although some of them are still predicting the storm heading towards the coast.

It is looking more and more like all of the forecasts are predicting a northward turn later in the week.

Florence continues to strengthen and is expected to reach hurricane status by the end of the week. Increases in strength may continue for quite awhile until the storm moves far enough north that the water temperature is too cool to sustain a severe storm.

From The Weather Channel :

Despite wind shear from an upper low to the west of Tropical Storm Florence, the system has strengthened some today with top sustained winds of 50 mph as of 5 p.m. EDT. The shear will continue to diminish over the next couple of days, so Florence could very well become a hurricane a couple of hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands by Friday morning. A
gradual turn by Florence toward the north is expected over the weekend
, so the hurricane should miss the U. S. but threaten Bermuda. Florence may also become the first major hurricane of the year this weekend.

Closer to the U.S., Hurricane Hunters are investigating an area of disturbed weather off the Southeast Coast. This system has a small window to develop before interacting with a frontal boundary. Farther out in the Atlantic, a disturbance trailing Florence by several hundred miles has some potential for further development over the next day or two. A third disturbance, well south of the Cape Verde Islands, also bears watching. A sharp wave has developed at the surface in the east-central Caribbean Sea. Thunderstorms have flared up during the past 6-12 hours south of Hispaniola. If they persist for another 12 hours we may see a weak low pressure center form as the wave drifts west at about 10 mph.

In the eastern Pacific, tenacious Kristy (35 mph) has been downgraded to a tropical depression.

We will update this post as new information becomes available.

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