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Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Intense Hurricane JIMENA weakens slightly

Hurricane Jimena has weakened slightly from nearly a Category 5 storm to a strong Category 3. With sustained winds of 125 MPH this is a drop in windspeed of 30 MPH - a MAJOR difference. The effect of this much lessening of windspeed is significant when talking about the amount of damage that teh storm can do.
Of course, Jimena is still a major hurricane. Weak structures, trailer homes low-lying areas are all at risk of damage. The potential for power outages in higher elevations is even possible as some stronger gusts and heavy winds are still active in the upper layers of the storm. 
Additionally, the winds just died down recently as cooler sea water from the California current interacted with the sea water near Jimena. The storm surge that had been produced when Jimena was a Cat 4+ needs time to die down. As close as this storm is to the southern tip of Baja California, there is no time for the surge to die down. The effect will be a storm surge as high as 15 - 25 feet along the western shore.

Storm Alert issued at 1 Sep, 2009 21:00 GMT
Intense Hurricane JIMENA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Rosarito (26.5 N, 111.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
    Guerrero Negro (28.0 N, 114.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Punta Prieta (29.0 N, 114.2 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    Guaymas (28.0 N, 111.0 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

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