Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker

A single source reference on tropical weather predictions. With a traditional focus on the upper Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast we've maintained links to track all Atlantic Basin, Caribbean and eastern Pacific storm systems. We are now expanding our view to tropical storms throughout the world intending to be a comprehensive global storm tracking resource.

Friday, May 29, 2009

TD #1 is a non starter

The first tropical depression to form in the Atlantic is slowly dissipating and will soon lose all tropical characteristics. TD #1 formed of the coast of the mid-Atlantic states from a low that originally came together near the South Carolina coast. All projections were for the storm to head out to sea and that is exactly what it is doing.

The most recent report from AccuWeather, who downplayed any concerns from this storm from its inception, is:

The first tropical depression of the 2009 season continues to move well out into the Atlantic and away from the Northeast coast. This small system is still producing sustained winds near 35 mph as it tracks toward the east-northeast at 18 mph. As the depression moves over colder water this evening, it will lose its tropical characteristics and become embedded within an old frontal boundary.

This system will never be a threat to land.

Story by
Meteorologist Brett Anderson

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Millions displaced by Tropical Cyclone Aila

Millions displaced by Cyclone Aila

Cyclone Aila has left millions stranded in India and Bangladesh while many do not have access to food and water. Many homes were completely destroyed.

From Scientific American video

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Cyclone Aila hits India and Bangladesh

Frequently we all tend to discount the threat from tropical storms and Cat 1 hurricanes. I know I have said more than once if it is a Cat 3 or above I'll go but for a category 1 or 2 I'll just ride it out. Well two of the deadliest storms in Houston (not including Ike) were tropical storms Allison and Alecia. Both of these storms caused major flooding resulting in bad property damage and a loss of life.

Hurricane season starts next week in the western hemisphere, but tropical storms are active throughout the year in the Pacific and around south Asia. Today tropical Cyclone Aila came ashore near the border of India and Bangladesh. Aila came ashore as a Category 1 - a minimal cyclone with 75 mph winds and caused an immense amount of damage.

KOLKATA: A day after cyclone Aila battered coastal West Bengal, especially 24 Parganas, uprooting trees, snapping power cables and leaving a trail of destruction in its wake, rescue operations were on in full swing Tuesday with the army also moving in to help, as the death toll mounted to 82. The cyclone that also affected more than 400,000 people has begun to weaken and move off. Twenty-two people have died due to heavy landslides in Darjeeling, while in North 24 Parganas, 16 were killed in the storms. Fifteen deaths were reported from South 24 Parganas and nine in Kolkata. Seven people lost their lives in Howrah, five in Hooghly, three in Murshidabad, two in Birbhum and one each in Malda, East Midnapore and Bakura. The state government carried out rescue operations in Kolkata's neighbouring South 24 Parganas district where the cyclone and the accompanying heavy rains inundated large swathes of land and left thousands homeless.
Cyclone Aila swallows Sunderbans tigers

As the human toll from Monday's cyclone rose to 64, beat officers and range officials in the Sunderbans feared hundreds of herbivores and at least a dozen tigers might have been swept away by the giant waves that lashed the forests. While a tiger had sneaked into the Jamespur village wading through the flood waters and was tranquillised early on Tuesday morning, 20 crocodiles and two spotted deer were found dead. The full extent of the damage will be known only after an assessment by forest teams. As per the last census, the Sunderbans had 265 tigers.
Cyclone Aila kills nearly 200 in Bangladesh, India

DHAKA (Reuters) – Nearly 200 people have been killed by a cyclone that ripped through Bangladesh and eastern India, while millions remained marooned by floodwater or forced to live in shelters.

The death toll in Bangladesh rose to more than 130 following recovery of dozens of bodies Tuesday, newspapers and private television channels said, while Indian officials said at least 64 people had died in West Bengal state.

Cyclone Aila slammed into parts of coastal Bangladesh and eastern India Monday, triggering tidal surges and flooding that forced people from their homes.

2009 Hurricane season predictions

Hello again friends. Hurricane season starts in 5 days in the Atlantic basic, Gulf of Mexico and eastern Pacific.

2009 starts my third year with tropical storm tracking on this site. This year will be a little different, though, as I am a landlubber now safely tucked away in the North Georgia hills. I will strive to continually provide accurate and timely information even though I am not in the bullseye of Galveston-Houston. We do still have family and friends in the area and tropical weather is still a passion for me. As I've said before, if researchers from Colorado can have the most consistent and accurate yearly hurricane predictions, then I can certainly track their progress from Georgia.

You know, we certainly cannot control when storms form or where they go. The only thing we can control is how prepared we are and how well we understand the physics of these storms. So I will start this year's blog posts with some blog posts from the Weather Channel's hurricane expert, Dr. Steve Lyons.

Hurricane Season June 1st - Are You Ready? A collection of blog posts by The Weather Channel expert Dr. Steve Lyons.
Steve Lyons Hurricane and Wave Expert, The Weather Channel
May25. , 2009 4:52 am ET

Time to get prepared for the 2009 Pacific and Atlantic Hurricane Season. Hurricane hazards come in many forms: storm surge, high winds, tornadoes, and flooding. This means it is important for your family to have a plan that includes all of these hazards. Look carefully at the safety actions associated with each type of hurricane hazard and prepare your family disaster plan accordingly.

Until then here is selection of blogs written by our own hurricane and wave expert, Dr. Steve Lyons.

Five Toes of the Hurricane Footprint
Hurricane Rainfall Patterns
Preoccupation with Hurricane Maximum Winds
What Causes Hurricane Surge on the Coast?

As far as predictions go, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) is predicting an active season for 2009 as of their April predictions. They also point out that their success rate at the April timeframe is rather low. Their prediction is for 15 named storms including 7 - 8 hurricanes and 3 - 4 severe hurricanes.

As many of you know, I typically look to Dr. Phillip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray both of the University of Colorado for how the year is going to be. They have been steadily dropping their predicitions for the number of storms this season due to the low sea surface temperatues in the North Atlantic this year. These lower than expected water temperatures coupled with a developing El Nino indicate that 2009 may be more mild than the past few years.

Drs. Klotzbach and Gray are predicting an average year with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 2 intense hurricanes (Cat 3 or higher). (pdf)


1) Entire U.S. coastline - 54% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 32% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 31% (average for last centuty is 30%)
4) Average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

They are predicting both a fewer number of storms with lower probablility of making landfall AND a lower intensity of those storms that do form. Of course a lower expected number of storms means nothing if the one storm to come ashore hits where you are. Remember the year that Andrew erased Homeland, FL we only had one storm and that didn't hit until September. So as usual the theme is to be prepared.

As the season continues, I will post articles about hurricane preparation. Please put your plan together now, long before a storm forms so that you will be ready when a storm does hit.

Storm Watch with:, Rosemary's Thoughts, Nuke Gingrich, Woman Honor Thyself, Right Truth, The World According to Carl, DragonLady's World, The Pink Flamingo, Leaning Straight Up, CORSARI D'ITALIA, and Stageleft, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.

Who's the real activist?

A few weeks ago, A and I went kayaking down the Chattahoochee River. It was the first time for both of us and we had a real blast. When we got to the meeting place that morning, I saw bumper sticker that really hit home for me:

The activist is not the person who screams that the river is dirty,
The activist is the person who actually cleans it up!

This makes so much sense and once again shows the hypocrisy of some of those on the left. In light of this, consider the following:

A Tale of Two Houses

House #1:

A 20 room mansion (not including 8 bathrooms) heated by natural gas. Add on a pool (and a pool house) and a separate guest house, all heated by gas. In one month this residence consumes more energy than the average American household does in a year. The average bill for electricity and natural gas runs over $2400 per month.. In natural gas alone, this property consumes more than 20 times the national average for an American home. This house is not situated in a Northern or Midwestern 'snow belt' area.. It's in the South.
House #2:

Designed by an architecture professor at a leading national university. This house incorporates every 'green' feature current home construction can provide. The house is 4,000 square feet (4 bedrooms) and is nestled on a high prairie in the American southwest. A central closet in the house holds geothermal heat-pumps drawing ground water through pipes sunk 300 feet into the ground.

The water (usually 67 degrees F) heats the house in the winter and cools it in the summer. The system uses no fossil fuels such as oil or natural gas and it consumes one-quarter the electricity required for a conventional heating/cooling system. Rainwater from the roof is collected and funneled into a 25,000 gallon underground cistern. Wastewater from showers, sinks and toilets goes into underground purifying tanks and then into the cistern. The collected water then irrigates the land surrounding the house. Surrounding flowers and shrubs native to the area enable the property to blend into the surrounding rural landscape. The heating/cooling system is so efficient that initial plans to install solar panels were cancelled.


HOUSE #1 is outside of Nashville , Tennessee ; it is the abode of the 'Environmentalist' Al Gore.
HOUSE #2 is on a ranch near Crawford , Texas ;it is the residence of the former President of the United States , George W. Bush.
Yes, it's "An inconvenient truth.."
I bring this up because President Bush has been severely criticized for the past 8 years that his policies were bad for the environment, while Vice President Gore has been proclaimed the savior of the planet. Well in my mind, actions speak louder than words.

Look at these houses... Whose actions do more to protect the environment? Add to it the fact that during the Bush years, the concentration of so-called greenhouse gases in the US were reduced more than in Europe where they embraced heavy handed government tactics that Bush wouldn't accept because they would destroy our economy.

Additionally, keep in mind that one of Bush's last actions as president was to designate the largest marine sanctuary in the world in the Pacific.

These actions are not mentioned in the press. Most people don't know about them and only hear about the dire straights the world is in because Bush let us drive SUV's instead of forcing higher CAFE standards. The environmental alarmists don't want to admit the good that has happened in the past 8 years because they don't want to give George Bush any credit whatsoever.

2010 Atlantic Hurricanes (courtesy of

NOAA Gulf of Mexico Radar (courtesy of

NOAA West Atlantic & Caribbean Radar (courtesy of

NOAA East Atlantic Radar (courtesy of