Dean was the 3rd most intense hurricane

(Breitbart) Hurricane Dean was the 3rd most intense hurricane to make landfall since record keeping began in the mid 1800's. When Dean came ashore on the central Yucatan peninsula, he had sustained winds of 160 MPH and gusts as high as 200 MPH. The storm had been building in strength as it crossed onto land. This is the exact opposite of what was seen during the monster storms of 2005 where Katrina, Rita and Wilma all dropped in intensity right before making landfall. Remember, when Katrina hit she was actually only a Cat 3 storm. Imagine that damage that would have resulted had Katrina sustained at teh Cat 5 level that she was at in the gulf.

Pressure readings from the center of the storm recorded a central pressure of only 906 millibars. Only Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 and the 1935 storm had lower pressures - and as a result, higher windspeeds.

Windspeed causes the destruction that we observe around us when storms pass so that is what we associate with the strength of these storms. The central storm pressure is probably a more scientifically "correct" (I really don't like that word but I cannot think of a better one right now) way to determine a storms intensity. The low pressure at the center of a storm causes the high winds as the air rushes in from the higher pressure surrounding the storm to replace the void created by the low pressure. The wind spirals in the same way that air will rush in to fill a vacuum - from high pressure to low pressure. The lower the pressure, the greater the windspeed.

Sorry for the lack of reporting as the storm crossed into the Yucatan. My day job takes way to much time and since I cannot read Spanish, I am limited in the sources for fresh information. I continue to strive to find sources for information beyond the main stream media since we all have access to the majors but access to foreign or scientific sources may not be as readily available to many.

Current storm update - Dean crossed the Yucatan and has re-entered into the bay of Campeche as a Category 1 storm. Still a hurricane but without the catastrophic winds. The concern now is flash floods and excessive flooding from the heavy rain. Central Mexico is fairly mountainous and flooding due to runoff is a real concern.

The models show that the storm track will take the rain across Mexico and trhen north into California and Arizona. Beware of flooding and heavy rain. Here in Texas we have an ad campaign that I urge everyone to follow -

Turn Around - Don't Drown!

Never drive into a stream that has flooded and is crossing a road. A surprisingly small amount of water can lift a vehicle enought for the driver to lose control. Flood waters can rush up very quickly submerging a vehicle. Many people here have drowned because the crossed a flooded roadway and learned too late that the water was deeper and faster moving than they thought.

New Disturbance in the North Atlantic

At the time of this writing, the Mariners 1-2-3 Chart is showing a new disturbance in the North Atlantic east of Florida and the Bahamas. The chart is live and is continuously updated by the National Hurricane Center so I do not know if this will remain as an active system on the chart or not. The last disturbance was dropped from the chart a day before it became T. S. Erin.

Based on the forward speed indicated, it appears that this is a slow moving system. With the warm ocean water temperatures, such a slow moving system is likely, IMO, to develop further into a depression or even a tropical storm.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201511
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DEAN...CENTERED ABOUT 385 MILES EAST OF BELIZE CITY.

1. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A FEW
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

Trackposted to Outside the Beltway, Right Pundits, Blog @ MoreWhat.com, Perri Nelson's Website, Mark My Words, Committees of Correspondence, Rosemary's Thoughts, 123beta, Right Truth, Big Dog's Weblog, DragonLady's World, Leaning Straight Up, The Amboy Times, The Bullwinkle Blog, The Florida Masochist, Pursuing Holiness, Public Domain Clip Art, Diary of the Mad Pigeon, third world county, Faultline USA, Wake Up America, The Crazy Rants of Samantha Burns, The World According to Carl, Pirate's Cove, Blue Star Chronicles, The Pink Flamingo, Dumb Ox Daily News, High Desert Wanderer, Right Voices, The Yankee Sailor, OTB Sports, and Gone Hollywood, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.

Hurricane Dean Update

Hurricane Dean is now a catastrophic category 5.

At 8 p.m. ET, the center of Hurricane Dean was located about 210 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico. It is moving toward the west at about 20 mph. Dean is expected to continue on a westward track toward the coast and make landfall by morning. Maximum sustained winds have been moved up to 160 mph making Dean a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Weather conditions are now beginning to deteriorate over the eastern Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize. The center of Hurricane Dean is expected to make north of the border between Belize and the Mexican state of Quintana Roo and south of Tulum. It is here where a water rise of 8 to 12 feet can be expected with monstrous waves of 25 to 30 feet.

The resorts of Cancun and Cozumel will not feel the full brunt of Hurricane Dean but waves on the order of 18 to 24 feet are expected to crash along the shores resulting in severe beach erosion. Squalls of tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains will rotate in across the resorts tonight and into the early morning hours. (Weather.com Hurricane Central).

Hurricane Dean is rapidly approaching the Yucatan peninsula. The current track has the center of the storm passing to the south of Cancun near the center of the peninsula. If this forecast track holds, Cancun will likely see tropical storm force winds at most.

Several of the more rustic hotels further south of the resort were evacuated by the government with most of Cancun and Cozumel being already deserted as tourists swarmed outbound flights.

At the southern tip of Texas, officials urged residents to evacuate ahead of the storm. "Our mission is very simple. It's to get people out of the kill zone, to get people out of the danger area, which is the coastline of Texas," said Johnny Cavazos, Cameron County's chief emergency director.

Officials in the resort town of South Padre Island distributed sandbags after a state of emergency was declared.

In Mexico, the Quintana Roo state government said about two-thirds of the 60,000 tourists in the Cancun area had left. Some camped overnight at the city's airport to ensure a flight out. Many others were turned away.

Belize is also taking precautions by evacuating people from Belize city on the coast to the more inland capitol Belmopan.

Belize, just south of Mexico, evacuated 6,000 people from the country's main tourist resort, San Pedro on Ambergris Caye, and 500 or so from nearby Caye Caulker, said national emergency coordinator James Jan Mohammed. People were urged to leave low-lying areas.

Authorities evacuated Belize City's three hospitals and were moving high-risk patients to the inland capital, Belmopan, founded after 1961's Hurricane Hattie devastated Belize City. Belize City Mayor Zenaida Moya urged people to leave, saying shelters aren't strong enough to withstand a storm of Dean's size.

Hurricane Dean ... Moves towards Yucatan (VOA News)

Mexico and Belize have issued hurricane warnings as Hurricane Dean churns across the Caribbean, bringing torrential rains and winds of more than 240 kilometers-per-hour.

Forecasters say the storm will hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula - which separates the Caribbean Sea from the Gulf of Mexico - late Monday or early Tuesday.

"Some strengthening is expected today, and Dean is likely to become a category five hurricane prior to making landfall over the Yucatan peninsula very early Tuesday morning," she said. (VOA News)

All of the computer models are now converging on a common path with the storm taking a more southerly track across central Mexico. "...a low-pressure system over the United States that could have drawn the storm more northward toward the Caymans and the U.S. Gulf Coast has moved away." With this low moving out of the area of influence for Dean, the potential of the storm affecting the US is extremely remote. Local news reports in Houston indicate that the most that we can expect from Dean is a rougher surf along the coast.

It is interesting to me that all of the models show a sharp northern turn, but not until the storm is well inland and the winds have dissipated. The remnants of Dean are likely to bring heavy rain to Southern California and possibly southern Nevada and Arizona.



Trackposted to Outside the Beltway, Right Pundits, Blog @ MoreWhat.com, Perri Nelson's Website, Mark My Words, Committees of Correspondence, Rosemary's Thoughts, Right Truth, Big Dog's Weblog, DragonLady's World, Leaning Straight Up, The Amboy Times, The Bullwinkle Blog, Pursuing Holiness, Public Domain Clip Art, Diary of the Mad Pigeon, third world county, Faultline USA, Pirate's Cove, Blue Star Chronicles, The Pink Flamingo, High Desert Wanderer, Right Voices, The Yankee Sailor, OTB Sports, and Gone Hollywood, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.

Hurricane Dean - reports from Jamaica

Below are some of the news reports on Hurricane Dean's passing over Jamaica:

Hurricane Dean Pummels Jamaica (Breitbart.com)

Hurricane Dean Slams Jamaica as Category 4 Storm (Fox News)

Dean's northern eyewall punishing Jamaica (The Weather Channel)

Hurricane Dean hits Jamaican coast (CNN)

Latest Bulletin from the Meteorological Service of Jamaica

August 19, 2007 @ 8:00 p.m.

BULLETIN No. 18

*** HURRICANE DEAN NOW CLOSE TO SOUTHWESTERN JAMAICA ***

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica as extreme weather conditions associated with Hurricane Dean move across the island. This means that dangerous effects of a hurricane are still expected over Jamaica within 24 hours.

At 7:00 p.m. the centre of Hurricane Dean was located near Latitude 17.5 degrees North, Longitude 77.8 degrees West. This is about 115 km (70 miles) west-southwest of Kingston or 40 km (25 miles) south of Lover’s Leap, St. Elizabeth.

Dean is moving westward at near 32 km/h (20 mph) and a general motion towards the west or west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 230 km/h (145 mph), with higher gusts; hence Dean remains a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Fluctuations in strength are, however, still possible. Hurricane force winds extend outward approximately 95 km (60 miles), while tropical storm force winds extend 335 km (205 miles) from the centre.

Radar reports and satellite imagery confirm that the eye of Hurricane Dean is now located off the southwest coast of Jamaica and that the bands of rainfall surrounding the eye continue to engulf the island. There are also reports of wind-speeds reaching 130 km/h (80 mph) in Kingston.

On the current forecast track, the centre of Hurricane Dean will continue moving west-northwestward to begin moving away to the west after midnight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to affect most parishes throughout the night and into tomorrow with periods of strong, gusty winds, especially over western parishes.

All interests should continue to monitor subsequent Releases from the Meteorological Service. The next Bulletin on Hurricane Dean will be issued at 11:00 p.m.


-END-

vtj

Storm Watch with Perri Nelson's Website, Rosemary's Thoughts, 123beta, Wake Up America, The Crazy Rants of Samantha Burns, Right Truth, The World According to Carl, Wake Up America, The Pink Flamingo, The Bullwinkle Blog, The Florida Masochist, , and Dumb Ox Daily News, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.

Sunday Storm Update

This morning Hurricane Dean remains a dangerous Category 4 hurricane and is bearing down on Jamaica. Current forecasts indicate that the eye or northeast quadrant of the storm will pass directly over the island sometime this afternoon and evening.

Pasted below is Bulletin No. 14 from the Meteorological Service of Jamaica:

August 19, 2007 @ 8:00 a.m.

BULLETIN No. 14

***HURRICANE DEAN BEGINS TO INFLUENCE WEATHER OVER JAMAICA***

A Hurricane Warning remains posted for Jamaica as weather conditions begin to deteriorate over sections of the country under the influence of Hurricane Dean. The dangerous effects of a hurricane are still expected to affect Jamaica within 24 hours.

At 7:00 a.m. the centre of Hurricane Dean was located near Latitude 16.8 degrees North, Longitude 74.3 degrees West. This is about 225 km (140 miles) east-southeast of Morant Point, Jamaica.

Dean continues to move westward near 30 km/h (18 mph) and this general motion is expected to continue today.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 230 km/h (145 mph), with higher gusts, making Dean a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale; however, fluctuations in strength remain a possibility. Hurricane force winds extend outward approximately 95 km (60 miles), while tropical storm force winds extend 335 km (205 miles) from the centre.

Satellite imagery indicates that spiral bands associated with the hurricane have begun to spread across the island, starting with eastern parishes. Residents can expect increasing rainfall this morning along with gusty winds rapidly reaching tropical-storm strength. Severe flash-flooding and landslides are likely to occur across the country.

Based on the official forecast track, the centre of Hurricane Dean is expected to begin moving over the waters just south of Jamaica early this afternoon and then follow a path adjacent to the coastline throughout the rest of the day. During this period, hurricane-force winds are likely to be experienced by most of the island, generating dangerous storm surges and battering waves along coastal areas of mainly southern parishes.

All interests should continue to monitor subsequent Releases from the Meteorological Service. The next Bulletin on Hurricane Dean will be issued at 11:00 a.m.

-END-

CDJ

Further strengthening after Dean leaves Jamaica and moves into the warm waters of the Caribbean and the Yucatan basin. Fox News reported this morning that that Dean will likely be a Category 5 storm by the time he hits the coast of the Yucatan peninsula.

Over the course of the day yesterday, the storm track was shifted on a more southerly direction across the Bay of Campeche with eventual landfall in northern Mexico. At the moment is certainly looks like Texas will be spared the destructive winds of this fierce storm although we can be certain that at least South Texas will receive heavy rain bringing about the potential for flooding especially after the effects of Tropical Storm Erin and the saturation from earlier heavy rains.

However... we cannot be complacent at this point. Two of the computer models are still showing the potential for this storm to track north once it enters the Gulf. At the current speed, there is still the potential for Dean to be affected by the low pressure system moving west from Florida that we discussed yesterday. At this point we need to wait until Dean enters the Gulf and then watch to see what he will do without dropping our guard.

Storm Watch with Outside the Beltway, Perri Nelson's Website, Rosemary's Thoughts, Big Dog's Weblog, Right Truth, Shadowscope, Wake Up America, The Amboy Times, The Uncooperative Radio Show! Special Weekend!, Pursuing Holiness, third world county, Right Celebrity, Woman Honor Thyself, Stageleft, Wake Up America, Pirate's Cove, The Pink Flamingo, Dumb Ox Daily News, Church and State, Right Pundits, 123beta, Adam's Blog, Nuke's News & Views, Webloggin, The Bullwinkle Blog, Cao's Blog, , The Florida Masochist, Conservative Cat, Public Domain Clip Art, Faultline USA, The Crazy Rants of Samantha Burns, , The World According to Carl, Walls of the City, Blue Star Chronicles, OTB Sports, and Gone Hollywood, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.

Texas and Louisiana - States of pre-emergency

Yesterday Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco declared a state of emergency in preparation for the potential of Hurricane Dean making landfall in her state.

Gov. Kathleen Blanco took the precautionary step of declaring a state of emergency at 6 p.m. Friday, and also asked federal officials for a Presidential Emergency Declaration to ensure federal assets are available to Louisiana in advance of a possible landfall.

"These declarations are a necessary step that allows the state to move quickly if need be," Blanco said. "I urge all citizens to be personally prepared, listen to your local officials and monitor your local media as this storm progresses. Please make sure your plans to get to safety should evacuation be in order. Be prepared for the worst and hope for the best." (NOLA.com)

Today Governor Rick Perry of Texas requested a federal disaster declaration for Texas which President Bush approved.

U.S. President George W. Bush on Saturday approved a pre-landfall emergency declaration for Texas to provide federal help if the state is hit by Hurricane Dean, White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.

The emergency declaration, which was requested by the governor of Texas, allows the federal government to move in emergency personnel, equipment and supplies now in the event the state is struck by the storm, he said. (Reuters)

Statement on Federal Disaster Assistance for Texas (Whitehouse.gov)

At first glance these early disaster declarations may seem excessive and a bit premature. After all, Louisiana isn't even in the cone of uncertainty in the storms forecast. The risk to Texas could seem minimal since the models continue to converge on northern Mexico. At least they should wait until Dean enters the Gulf of Mexico before making such a major decision, right?....Not necessarily.

Let's look at the facts to date regarding Hurricane Dean.

• Dean's forward speed of 18 - 20 MPH is fast. This storm has a lot of forward momentum and is moving quite rapidly.
• Yesterday afternoon, Dean was a Category 2 storm with 105 MPH sustained winds. In a four hour period last night Dean increased to a Category 4 storm with 140 MPH winds.
• Dean now has 150 MPH winds and is likely to intensify further. Earlier today "DRSPEIGEL14" read on a US Navy site that Dean had 157 PH winds for a short while that then dropped below the Cat 5 threshold. DRSPEIGEL's video from You Tube is embedded below.
• While most of the computer models are converging on landfall in northern Mexico, two models consistently show curvature more to the north with one indicating a storm track that comes close to Houston and another showing a Louisiana landfall or even further east. In a discussion with KPRC (Houston) meteorologist Frank Billingsly, hurricane expert Max Mayfield commented that the model that curves up to the north is the one that has a very high record of success and cannot be ruled out.
• A low pressure system is moving west out of Florida towards Texas. If Dean continues at its current forward speed and catches up with this low, Dean could be pulled north and the entire Texas coast and possibly the Louisiana coast comes into the target range.

With all of this information coupled with the uncertainty that accompanies a storm that enters the Gulf of Mexico, the wisest action is to be "prepared for the worst and hope for the best."

Dr. Max Mayfield discusses Hurricane Dean with Dr. Frank Billingsly (KPRC Channel 2 Houston)

Lives, personal safety and the economic heath of our communities are at stake with the decisions of these executives. As readers of this blog know, I was very critical of Governor Blanco for her handling of the response after Hurricane Katrina. As this dangerous hurricane approaches, IMO these two governors are taking the best actions possible at this time. Proper preparation now is smart. These declarations get the paperwork out of the way and get the proper departments mobilized to minimize the reaction time once the storm passes.

Maybe we actually did learn something after all.






Storm Watch with Right Pundits, Outside the Beltway, Perri Nelson's Website, Rosemary's Thoughts, 123beta, Adam's Blog, Big Dog's Weblog, Shadowscope, Nuke's News & Views, Webloggin, The Bullwinkle Blog, Cao's Blog, Conservative Cat, The Uncooperative Radio Show! Special Weekend!, Pursuing Holiness, third world county, Faultline USA, Right Celebrity, Woman Honor Thyself, The World According to Carl, Blue Star Chronicles, The Pink Flamingo, The Yankee Sailor, and Church and State, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.

Your Evacuation Plan

Copied directly from the Louisiana Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness Website.

This is an excellent list of the things that need to be in place a few days or so before a storm comes in - for those of us in Texas, Louisiana and Mexico, now is a good time to begin preparations. They may not be necessary but a good plan now prevents panic and danger later.

	If you have only moments before leaving, grab these things and go! Medical supplies: prescription medications and dentures. Disaster supplies: flashlight, batteries, radio, first aid kit, bottled water Clothing and bedding: a change of clothes and a sleeping bag or bedroll and pillow for each household member Car keys and keys to the place you may be going (friend's or relative's home) If local officials haven't advised an immediate evacuation: If there's a chance the weather may get worse or flooding may happen, take steps now to protect your home and belongings. Do this only if local officials have not asked you to leave. Protect your home. Bring things indoors. Lawn furniture, trash cans, children's toys, garden equipment, clotheslines, hanging plants, and any other objects that may fly around and damage property should be brought indoors. Leave trees and shrubs alone. If you did not cut away dead or diseased branches or limbs from trees and shrubs, leave them alone. Local rubbish collection services will not have time before the storm to pick anything up. Look for potential hazards. Look for coconuts, unripened fruit, and other objects in trees around your property that could blow or break off and fly around in high winds. Cut them off and store them indoors until the storm is over. Turn off electricity and water. Turn off electricity at the main fuse or breaker, and turn off water at the main valve. Leave natural gas on. Unless local officials advise otherwise, leave natural gas on because you will need it for heating and cooking when you return home. If you turn gas off, a licensed professional is required to turn it back on, and it may take weeks for a professional to respond. Turn off propane gas service. Propane tanks often become dislodged in disasters. If flooding is expected, consider using sand bags to keep water away from your home. It takes two people about one hour to fill and place 100 sandbags, giving you a wall one foot high and 20 feet long. Make sure you have enough sand, burlap or plastic bags, shovels, strong helpers, and time to place them properly. Remember. Houses do not explode due to air pressure differences. Damage happens when wind gets inside a home through a broken window, door, or damaged roof. Cover the outside of windows with shutters or plywood. Use shutters that are rated to provide significant protection from windblown debris, or fit plywood coverings over all windows. Tape does not prevent windows from breaking. All tape does is prevent windows from shattering. Using tape on windows is not recommended. Protect your valuables. Move objects that may get damaged by wind or water to safer areas of your home. Move television sets, computers, stereo and electronic equipment, and easily moveable appliances like a microwave oven to higher levels of your home and away from windows. Wrap them in sheets, blankets, or burlap. Make a visual or written record of all of your household possessions. Record model and serial numbers. This list could help you prove the value of what you owned if those possessions are damaged or destroyed, and can assist you to claim deductions on taxes. Do this for all items in your home, including expensive items such as sofas, chairs, tables, beds, chests, wall units, and any other furniture too heavy to move. Store a copy of the record somewhere away from home, such as in a safe deposit box. If it's possible that your home may be significantly damaged by impending disaster, consider storing your household furnishings temporarily elsewhere. Gather essential supplies and papers. You will need the following supplies when you leave your home; put them all together in a duffle bag or other large container in advance: Flashlight with plenty of extra batteries Battery-powered radio with extra batteries First aid kit Prescription medications in their original bottle, plus copies of the prescriptions Eyeglasses (with a copy of the prescription) Water (at least one gallon per person is recommended; more is better) Foods that do not require refrigeration or cooking Items that infants and elderly household members may require Medical equipment and devices, such as dentures, crutches, prostheses, etc. Change of clothes for each household member Sleeping bag or bedroll and pillow for each household member Checkbook, cash, and credit cards Map of the area Important papers to take with you: Driver's license or personal identification Social Security card Proof of residence (deed or lease) Insurance policies Birth and marriage certificates Stocks, bonds, and other negotiable certificates Wills, deeds, and copies of recent tax returns

Storm Watch with Right Pundits, Outside the Beltway, Perri Nelson's Website, Rosemary's Thoughts, 123beta, Adam's Blog, Big Dog's Weblog, Shadowscope, Nuke's News & Views, The Bullwinkle Blog, Cao's Blog, The Uncooperative Radio Show! Special Weekend!, Pursuing Holiness, third world county, Right Celebrity, Faultline USA, Woman Honor Thyself, The World According to Carl, Blue Star Chronicles, The Pink Flamingo, The Yankee Sailor, and Church and State, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.

Hurricane Dean gains power in the Caribbean

Courtesy of The Weather Channel

6:50 p EDT 8/17/2007 - Dean could develop into an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane as it approaches the Yucatan.

Meteorologist Jennifer Lopez explains this evening's strengthening of Hurricane Dean.

Hurricane Dean is heading for Jamaica and growing strong

Strength UPDATE: This afternoon, Dean was at a Cat 2 with winds at 105 mph. By the tie I left the plant we were seeing winds of 125 for a solid Cat 3. Now, 2 hours later Dean is up to Category 4 strength with 135 MPH and barometric pressure of 946 mb.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE
STEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN DEAN OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS
OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE
OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK
HISTORY.   THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane Dean has been steadily growing since it formed off the African coast early this week. Now at a Category 3, Dean is now a major hurricane. All forecasts show a direct hit on the Island of Jamaica and then crossing the Yucatan into the Gulf.

As we've watched this storm develop, the forecast track and the cone of uncertainty has slowly moved to the north. Earlier in the week, the likely path took Dean across the widest part of the Yucatan and across the Bay of Campeche into northern Mexico. Now the path has the storm just grazing the NE corner of the peninsula and the final landfall stretches from northern Mexico to across much of the Texas coast.

I'll be updating this as the storm gets closer but it looks to me like this is Rita 2 - the sequel.



I have a bad feeling about this storm. The gulf waters are hot (85 - 90F) so Dean should strengthen once it enters the gulf. Sea surface temperature is one factor that influences storm intensity. Wind shear is another key factor which if favorable could help Dean to strengthen.

Directionally, the path of the storm is changing in a rather interesting way. The high pressure that brought us the 100 degree weather in Houston early this week has move east. The clockwise convection around the high will create winds out of the south on in the TX/LA area. Add to that the counter clockwise rotation of the remnants of Erin which will also create winds out of the south. These two pressure systems combined provide a powerful conveyor to suck this storm into the upper Texas coast.

When I first wrote this post this morning, three of the models were predicting tracks that brought Dean close to Houston. Now, while most of the predictions are still pointing towards northern Mexico, the three northern most predictions are shifting further east with one heading toward Houston and the other 2 heading into Louisiana.

A lot can happen between now and next weekend. Predictions by professionals this far out are very inaccurate. I'm just a hobbyist so maybe I'm wrong. I hope so but I'm making my plans now.

Trackposted to Outside the Beltway, Blog @ MoreWhat.com, Perri Nelson's Website, Rosemary's Thoughts, 123beta, Adam's Blog, Shadowscope, Nuke's News & Views, Leaning Straight Up, The Amboy Times, The Bullwinkle Blog, Pursuing Holiness, The Uncooperative Radio Show! Special Weekend!, Diary of the Mad Pigeon, Right Celebrity, Faultline USA, third world county, Woman Honor Thyself, The World According to Carl, Planck's Constant, The Pink Flamingo, High Desert Wanderer, Right Voices, and The Yankee Sailor, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.

T.D. Erin is making a MESS

Tropical Storm Erin began dumping rain on the Texas coast yesterday afternoon and overnight. The center of the storm's circulation came ashore in south Texas around 7:00 this morning, but the rainmaker is in the northeast quantrant. Heavy rains have caused bad flooding in south Houston and surrounding areas.

The heavy rain caused a roof collapse that killed one person and injured another
at about 11:30 a.m. near the loading dock at the Randalls store at Clear Lake
City Boulevard and Space Center Boulevard. (Houston Chronicle)

Store employees said they heard a loud crashing sound and soon after hurried out of the store at the corner of Clear Lake City Blvd. and Space Center. Store employees said the entire back roof of the store, near the loading dock, came crashing down.

Firemen from the Houston Fire Department frantically removed the collapse debris by hand. At one point they brought in the Jaws of Life to lift some heavier roof material.
Also a large part of the roof at the old Maxwell House Factory on Harrisburg near Drennan collapsed.

There were no reports of any injuries there (KHOU Channel 11)

HOUSTON -- Tropical Storm Erin fell apart soon after making landfall, but the system's outer bands sent massive rains rushing into the Houston area Thursday, flooding streets and stranding hundreds of motorists, KPRC Local 2 reported (KPRC Channel 2)

Minor Storm causes major Headaches (KHOU Channel 11)

Flash flood warning extended into rush hour (Houston Chronicle)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Harris County: Flash Flood Watch, Flash Flood Warning:

Galveston County: Flash Flood Watch

Flash Flood Watch:

Issued at: 3:51 PM CDT 8/16/07, expires at: 12:00 AM CDT 8/17/07

Flash Flood Watch now in effect through late tonight, The flash flood watch is now in effect for A portion of southeast texas, Including The Following counties, Austin, Brazoria, Colorado, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Jackson, Matagorda, Waller And Wharton. Through late tonight Tropical depression erin will continue to move northwest across south central texas this evening into early Friday morning and will continue to produce bands of showers and thunderstorms across the western gulf of mexico. These rainfall bands will continue to gradually spread inland across the watch area this evening into early Friday morning. Rainfall amounts from now through Friday morning will average between 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts of 4 to 6 inches possible. The highest rainfall amounts and the greatest risk of flooding is expected over brazoria, Colorado, Jackson, Matagorda, And Wharton counties. A flash flood watch means rapidly rising water or flooding is possible within the watch area. If you are in the watch area, check preparedness requirements, Keep Informed, And Be Ready for quick action if flash flooding is observed or if a warning is issued. Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Vehicles caught in rising water should be abandoned Quickly. If your vehicle stalls, Abandon It And seek higher ground immediately. Rapidly rising water may engulf your vehicle and its occupants and sweep them away. Move to higher ground. Listen to noaa weather radio or your local media for the later updates on this situation.


Flash Flood Warning

Issued at: 3:00 PM CDT 8/16/07, expires at: 5:15 PM CDT 8/16/07
The NWS in league city has extended the
flash flood warning for: harris county in southeast texas Until 515 pm cdt At 300 pm cdt, scattered showers and thunderstorms continued over harris county mostly to the east of i-45. This area of precipitation was decreasing in coverage and intensity. However, with an estimated 5 to 10 inches of rain having already fallen, there was widespread flooding already occuring that should gradually recede over the next few hours. Areas to the east of i-45 may experience an additional one half to one inch of rain over the next few hours. Flooding is expected in or near, the medical center, san jacinto state park, reliant park, minute maid park, lake houston dam, hobby airport, herman park, ellington field, west university place, south houston, shoreacres, sheldon, pasadena, morgan's point, la porte, jacinto city, houston, highlands, galena park, deer park, channelview, baytown and aldine. A flood watch is in effect until 7:00 pm for the warned area. Please report severe weather to the county sheriff, local police, or department of public safety. They will relay your report to the national weather service. Lat, lon 2959 9538 2959 9500 2970 9493 2996 9517 2992 9558

Tropical Storm Erin comes into South Texas

Tropical moisture has been feeding much of the rain we've been seeing in South and central Texas this summer. Firtunately, so far none of this moisture has organized enough to bring the winds along with the rain.

Well now we have our first named storm to hit the Texas coast this season. Tropical Storm Erin will be coming ashore tonight bringing a bunch of rain to an area that is already saturated from record setting rainfalls in late June and July.

Early predictions indicated that Erin could developinto a minimal hurricane before she came ashore. Now the Weather Channel is predicting that Erin will remain at tropical storm strength as she reaches landfall.

The heaviest rain bands and strongest winds are all in the northeast quadrant with much less rain and wind around the rest of the center of the storm. This puts the heaviest rain coming ashore close to Victoria. As the storm comes on land natural motion known as the Coriolis Force will cause Erin to kick over towards the north and east (like we typically see when cyclones come on shore). The stronger the storm and the faster the circulation, the stronger the force to drive the strom to the right. This motion could bring the heavy rains over the Texas Hill Country which was hit with heavy rains and severe flooding and certainly does not need more rain.

The big question will be how much the storm intensifies before reaching land. Hurricane hunter aircraft reading indicate some strengthening may occur which could, of course increase the rainfall and affect the curvature of the storms path. The next few days will be quite wet for South and Central Texas.

Hurricane Fossie Update

I don't know if I have any Hawaiian readers since Kahuna moved to San Fransisco but I hope these posts are dong some good in letting people know what is coming.

It looks like Hurricane Flossie will primarily affect the big island of Hawaii. There are already tropical storm warnings and a hurricane watch for the island. The storm has decreased a bit in intensity but is still a dangerous storm at Cat 3.

HURRICANE FLOSSIE REMAINS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH A CLEAR WELL-DEFINED EYE AND GOOD OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND AIRCRAFT RECON EXTRAPOLATED A SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 103 KT AT 1830Z. THIS CONTRASTS WITH A CI OF 6.0 OR 115 KT FROM JTWC AND SAB AT 1733Z AND 1800Z...RESPECTIVELY. TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WE WILL INITIALIZE FLOSSIE AT 110 KT FOR THIS RUN...MAKING FLOSSIE A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. THIS DROP IN INTENSITY MAY BE BRIEF SINCE SATELLITE LOOPS HINT AT A CYCLE OF EYEWALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY.

As I suspected, the storm will remain at hurricane strength as is passes Hawaii and then decrease to a tropical storm only after it has moved away from land, or at least our land. There are plenty of islands in the Pacific that can still be affected by this storm.

So how do you evacuate from a tropical island when a storm approaches anyway? Well if you stick to the plan that was discussed at the hurricane conference here in Houston, you "Run from the water and hide from the wind".

In other words - seek high ground and then hunker down.

Heat Advisory in Houston

This morning the local radio commented that a heat advisory has been issued for the Houston area that will remain in effect until 5 am tomorrow morning. It is rather unusual for a heat advisory to last through the night. You would expect that the temperatures would cool off at night, but not here. The humidty is so high that the air temperatures don't drop a whole bunch once the sun goes down.

A couple of pointers while we are in this high heat - which hopefully will break pretty soon.

1. Learn the difference between heat exhaustion and heat stroke.

Heat exhaustion - the person is still clammy, wet, sweating. You have time to cool him down. If conditions worsen, call 911.
Heat stroke - the person is NO LONGER SWEATING. Immediately call 911. Then do your best to cool the person down while waiting for EMTs to arrive.

2. Watch out for one another.

If you see a person sweating profusely, or acting a little different than normal….TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

Ask if they're OK
Offer some help
Make certain they have adequate "cool down" time
Make certain they're staying hydrated

The Tropics are Heating Up

Tropical depression 4 has formed in the eastern Atlantic. We will be watching this one closely, folks. If you recall in my previous post that the computer models show this coming straight into the Caribbean. It has been described as "vigorous" from the start and with the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico could become a major storm if it stays on a westerly heading.

Right now it ic clearly too early to tell. The storm coulfd track north up the Eastern Seaboard or stay west and come into the Gulf. We won;t know until next week sometime.

In the meantime we have had several tropical waves in the Caribbean forming and breaking apart. The Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule chart (at the top of this blog) shows at the moment that I an typing this, another tropical wave with the potential to form into a depression. This one is around the Yucatan peninsula. The key thing on further development, IMHO, is what the wind shear is doing. The sea surface temperatures are clearly warm enough for further development as long as the straight line winds don't tear the infant storm apart. So far this year that has happened quite a bit.

HURRICANE FLOSSIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A

000
WTPA32 PHFO 131750
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
800 AM HST MON AUG 13 2007
...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
AT 800 AM HST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 150.1 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 670 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM HURRICANE FLOSSIE ARE EXPECTED ON THE BIG
ISLAND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY. EVERYONE IN HAWAII IS URGED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR FUTURE BULLETINS AS THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
MOVES TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
REPEATING THE 800 AM HST POSITION...15.1 N...150.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER POWELL

What is next for Flossie?

I was looking at the forecast for Hurricane Flossie in the Pacific. Flossie is a severe Cat 4 hurricane that is projected to decrease in intensity in the next couple of days. Yesterday when I saw the forecast, my thought was that it would not amount to much on land with the weakening strength and the far south track. I also saw this morning that the National Hurricane Center was no longer tracking this storm but instead it is being tracked by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, so I grab the forecast discussion from there.

Well the CPHC is showing a much different prediction in my opinion. They are predicting the track to come much closer to the islands than the NHC was with the storm maintaining hurricane strength for a much longer period of time.

So what will really happen with this storm?

Storm intensity is affected by wind shear and sea surface temperature. I cannot find a map that displays the wind shear patterns for the central Pacific (my link to the Navy Tropical Cyclone page isn't working at the moment). The prediction is that the wind shear will be increasing beginning today and that can certainly rip apart a cyclone depending on the wind speeds. If the straight line winds do pick up then that would certainly help to diminish the storm's intensity.

The predictions continue to state that the storm will be entering cooler water which will also drive the intensity lower. But looking at this map of sea surface temperatures from Weather Underground, the water temps look fairly consistent and warm to me.

Weakening of Flossie will occur, in my opinion if the storm takes a major jog north where the cooler water is. The current predicted path has essentially consistent or slightly higher water temperatures.

My uneducated assessment is that this storm will remain strong - at least a Cat 2 hurricane, possibly stay as a Cat 4 - and will curve north enough to create significant concern for Hawaii. This track puts the islands in the more intense NE quadrant adding to the potential for this storm to create some damage.

This bears watching in the Atlantic

The NWS sidebar feed is calling the latest tropical wave off Africa vigorous.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED FROM AFRICA OVER THE FAREASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ISPOSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15TO 20 MPH.

It will be interesting to see if this develops any. There have been a bunch of tropical waves form both in the Caribbean and off the African coast but they have all been uneventful. Describing this as vigorous makes me suspect we might see some action from it.

UPDATE:


These are some of the computer models predicting the path and development of this tropical wave. The meteorologist at KHOU (Channel 11 in Houston - CBS Affiliate) commented that several models were predicting that the wave could develop into a hurricane and come straight into our general area. This map from Weather Underground certainly supports that.

Hurricane Flossie

As busy as I have been with work in crisis the past two weeks, I really haven't been watching the tropics as closely as I usually do. With the exception of a few tropical waves brewing in the Atlantic and Caribbean so far this year has been relatively calm. That is not to say that things won't get more exciting now that we are in the more active part of the season.

In the Eastern Pacific I've seen a few named storms pop up on the NWS feed in the sidebar but nothing that has been too bad...until now.

Hurricane Flossie surprised me the other day when I saw that the storm intensified to hurricane level. If my memory serves, this is the first outright hurricane of the year. Then this morning I saw that Flossie has grown to a Cat 3 and now it is a Category 4.

This major storm is heading to just south of the Hawaiian Islands and is expected to weaken was it moves over cooler waters. Based on the predicted track of the storm and this expected weakening, Hawaii should only be affected by some of the outer bands and some really great surf.

Hang Ten, dudes.