Three storms churn in the western Pacific

Besides the devestation caused by Typhoon Ketsana there are three other typhoons brewing in the western Pacific. These storms will all affect the Marianas Islands especially Guam and Yap. Early projections indicated that all three of these storms would head to the Philippine island of Luzon. Current indications are that two of them will head towards Taiwan or China but it is still to early to state this with certainty.

Tropical Storm Eighteen (18W) has been slowly heading towards Guam all week. This storm will make landfall on the island within the next 12 hours and then diminish to a tropical depression after 24 hours. Eighteen will continue to dissipate over the next 72 hours and is not expected to threaten any other land masses.

Eighteen currrently has 40 MPH sustained winds and is moving WNW.

Typhoon Parma (19W) has 75 MPh sustained winds and is expected to increase to a Category 3 typhoon. Parma will scoot along the eastern coasts of the Philippine archepelago and is currently headed for Taiwan. If the storm continues to curve to the north, it may miss the island or just clip the norther region and head for the Chinese mainland.

Parma has passed south of Guam and is expected to make landfall on the island of Yap shortly.

Tropical Storm Melor (20W) is heading to the north of Guam and is expected to cross the Northern Marianas Islands by the end of the week as a Categort 1 typhoon. Melor is projected to continue intensifying becoming a Cat 2 storm by the end of the weekend.

Typhoon Ketsana slams into Da Nang

Typhoon Ketsana strengthened to a Category 1 typhoon just before slamming into central Vietnam today. The eye of the storm went right over Da Nang with hurricane force winds reaching north to Hue.

At least 23 people have been killed although the report from Vietnam Net (below) indicates that as many as 69 or more may have died. It is not clear to me from the article if this is referring to Ketsana or the storm from 3 years ago. I do not want to diminish any loss of life and I certainly hope that any loss of life has been minimal.

Over 170,000 people have been evacuated from 6 provinces.

Typhoon Ketsana Roars into Vietnam (Wall Street Journal) Photo essay

Typhoon Ketsana roared into central Vietnam on Tuesday, killing more than 20 people as it brought flooding and powerful winds to the country.

Central Vietnam in storm (Vietnam Net) Photo essay

Typhoon Ketsana has hit central provinces, causing floods, damages and traffic paralysis in many places.

Superstorm to hit midcoast cities head on (Vietnam Net)

Already Ketsana is being compared to Typhoon Xangsane, a category 15 storm that slammed into the central coast with devastating force three years ago. Considering its devastating force, loss of life was relatively low – 69 dead and some 500 injured – thanks to good warning and effective emergency measures as the storm approached.

Ketsana knocked down nearly 15,000 houses, damaged nearly 250,000 more, and sank or damaged over 500 boats. Damages in Danang City alone were estimated at over five trillion dong, or nearly $300 million.

Though the strongest impact will be felt on the central coast from Quang Tri to the north to Quang Ngai to the south, strong winds and rains will also pound the Ho Chi Minh City area as the storm, diminishing in intensity after it makes landfall, passes through toward Laos.

The aftermath of Ketsana in the Philippines continues to be devestation. The death toll has risen to 240 people.

Havoc in typhoon Ketsana's wake (Al Jazeera)

In the case of the Philippines, not only have we had a very wet rainy season coupled with the slow passage of Ketsana - which threw down copious amounts of rain over a short period of time as the storm crossed Luzon (over a month's worth in less than a day), but the outflow from the storm has continued to feed showers across the same areas even after the storm had passed.

Ketsana then re-intensified as it moved into the warm, moist waters of the South China Sea and is now bringing widespread floods into Vietnam.

Da-Nang, along the southern and eastern coast, has already seen 285mm of rain in just 24 hours and the city of Hue, farther inland, has seen 336mm over the same time-frame.

And there is more to come.

Ketsana will now quickly weaken as it makes its way over land but further flooding and mudslides are expected.

Ketsana will continue westward passing across the width of Vietnam, through Laos and into Tailand before dissipating.

Typhoon Ketsana poised to strike Vietnam

Ketsana Set to Strike Vietnam as a Typhoon (AccuWeather)

Ketsana will strike with hurricane winds along the coast of central Vietnam. Landfall off the South China Sea will happen not far from Hue between late Tuesday and early Wednesday, local time. High winds will dissipate rather quickly, but the heavy rain threat will linger in northern Vietnam into Wednesday, local time.

Destructive winds and flooding rain will have the greatest impact in the area of landfall and for some distance farther north. Here, highest rainfall will be 10-15 inches. This rainfall, in light of other heavy rain outbursts during the month, will pose a serious threat of both major flooding and mudslides.

Storm Alert issued at 28 Sep, 2009 18:00 GMT

Typhoon KETSANA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently

Laos
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China
probability for TS is 75% currently

Cambodia
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Thailand
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon KETSANA

Typhoon Ketsana is heading for central Vietnam. As the storm alert below indicates, tropical storm force winds will probably be felt this evening local time and may already be in some areas. Several storms have smashed into the northern provinces this season causing widespread flooding. With Ketsana heading further south, maybe this will be a slight relief although as I understand the ground is saturated here also.

 

I will update the situation as new information becomes available either this afternoon or tomorrow morning.

 

Storm Alert issued at 28 Sep, 2009 6:00 GMT

 

Typhoon KETSANA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vietnam
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Da Nang (16.1 N, 108.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
    Quang Ngai (15.1 N, 108.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Laos
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
    China
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Cambodia
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Dong Ha (16.8 N, 107.1 E)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
    Kon Tum (14.4 N, 108.0 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
    Dong Hoi (17.5 N, 106.6 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Thailand
        probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

A third tropical system heads for the Philippines

Tropical Depression 19W has just formed east of teh Phillipines ahead of TD 18W. Right now it appears that this storm will pass to the east of Luzon headed for Taiwan as a Typhoon. TD 19 will affect the eastern shore of Luzon about a day or less before TD 18W does.

So right now from what I see, Luzon will be swiped by one typhoon and then hit head on by a second one all within 24 hours. We will have to watch the storm path projections to see if both storms are drawn to the north or if either or both slam into this heavily devestated area.

Another typhoon headed for Philippines next weekend

Tropical Depression 18w is expected to intensify to a tropical storm within 12 hours and is expected to pass Guam within 48 hours according to Tropical Storm Risk. Sustained winds at that time are expected to reach 50 knots and continue growing. This will become Tropical Storm (Typhoon) Parma in the Western Pacific and TS Pedring locally in the Philippines.

Of further concern is that 18w is following a path similar to Ketsana and is headed for the northern Philippines potentially as a Level 1 typhoon by next weekend. A typhoon coming into Luzon so soon after the devestation caused by Tropical Storm Ketsana is not a good thing.



Tropical Depression 18w Discussion: (Weather Underground)

In the near term, TD 18w is expected to track generally to the west to west-northwestward and intensify slowly. Due to the current intensity, available model guidance is sparse, with ngps, WBAR andGFDN being the only available numerical vortex trackers. These trackers indicate a track to the west-northwest towards Guam. The extended fields available from ECMWF (no vortex tracker available from either ECMWF or ukmo) indicates a more southerly track is possible, passing south of (but close to) Guam.

In the extended (period) 18w is expected to track towards the northern Philippines, reaching typhoon intensity (within) 72 (hours). The system is currently not expected to rapidly intensify as it approaches the Philippines, although this possibility should not be discounted as the eastern Philippine Sea is a known region of rapid
intensification. During the extended period, TD 18w is not expected to recurve as the steering ridge is anticipated to remain strong and zonal.

The short of this is that 18W will pass over or slightly to the south of Guam and will then head towards the Philippines. Intensification by the end of next week is likely as 18W approaches the norther island of Luzon.

Death toll rises from Tropical Storm Ketsana

At least 72 people have lost their loves in the flooding caused by Tropical Storm Ketsana. The storm brought a month's worth of rain within a six hours. The Philippines naming convention locally names this storm as Tropical Storm Onyok.

Video: Typhoon lashes Manila (Al Jazeera)



Scores killed in Philippines floods (Al Jazeera)

At least 72 people have been killed and 40,000 forced to flee their homes amid widespread flooding after tropical storm Ketsana lashed the Philippines.

Manila and 25 other provinces were declared by the government to be in a "state of calamity" on Saturday as heavy rains caused the worst flooding seen in the capital in some 20 years.

Five children drowned in Manila and three people were swept away by a swollen river outside the capital, local radio station DZMM reported.

The flooding in Manilla was extensive resulting in many people being stranded on their roofs. Al Jazeera reported that people were being advized to remain there until they could be rescued. Many stores were reamining open to help people and were quickly running out of food and supplies.

Manila, the Pilippine capitol, and surrounding areas were the hardest hit. As can be seen in the video above, water levels as high as a meter rushed through city streets. The death toll continues to rise as more victims are found.

Dozens dead as flooding engulfs Manila (CNN)

Flood spawned by the rainfall killed at least 75 people with at least 21 others missing, the government said.

More than 80 percent of the capital was under water that swallowed whole houses and buses.

Manila, in the island of Luzon, and the nearby province of Rizal bore the brunt of the storm.

People huddled on rooftops Sunday waiting on army helicopters to pluck them to safety. Others used ropes to wade through waist-deep muddy waters.

Power and water supply failed in some areas. Roads were rendered impassable, making rescue efforts challenging.

"Right now the challenge is to find out how many people have actually died and how many people we have to take care of in terms of people who've been displaced," said Richard Gordon, the chairman of the Philippines National Red Cross.

"We're really talking about maybe hundreds of thousands of people," with about 280,000 to 300,000 displaced in the island of Luzon alone, he said.

Tropical storm Ketsana hammers Philippines, causing deaths and massive flooding (Examiner)

More video of Manila flooding (AP)

Tropical Storm Ketsana slams into the Philippines

Tropical Depression 17 grew into a tropical storm yesterday just prior to slamming into the Philippines today as Tropical Storm Ketsana.

Tropical Storm Ketsana Devastates Philippines, at least Five Killed and Thousands Evacuated Due to Flooding (TransWorldNews)

Tropical Storm Ketsana has pounded the Philippines, dumping the equivalent of one month of rain in just six hours, causing massive flooding in the capital Manila and killing at least five people while thousands have been forced to evacuate.

Power in Manila has been cut off while hundreds of people have been trapped on the rooftops of their home as streets have turned into raging rivers.

In some areas of the Philippines there have been reports of entire towns under water. The government has declared the current situation a calamity and has accessed emergency funds to provide for relief.

Philippine capital, 25 provinces battered by tropical storm (Xinhua)

The Philippine government on Saturday placed the national capital Metro Manila and about two dozen provinces in Luzon region under state of calamity as heavy rains caused by a tropical storm submerged roads and flooded homes, forcing nearly two thousand people to be evacuated.

National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) chair Gilberto Teodoro made the announcement at a disaster-relief briefing here in Manila as the state weather bureau reported tropical storm Ketsana triggered epic rainfall in six hours ended 2 p.m. Saturday, breaking the 1967-record of 334 millimeters in a 24-hour period.

At least 1,813 people were evacuated from their homes, the government's disaster relief agency said while a local radio report said nine people might have been killed. But the casualty report can't be immediately confirmed.

Most parts of the central Luzon experienced severe flooding. In Metro Manila, around 33 villages have been flooded and 37 road sections are closed to traffic, the NDCC said in its latest bulletin.

The heavy rain has caused much flooding and has left thousands stranded or homeless. The rainfall exceeded previous records for rain amounts set in 1967.

Thousands stranded by Philippine flooding; 5 die (AP)

MANILA, Philippines — Nearly a month's worth of rain fell in six hours Saturday as Tropical Storm Ketsana slammed ashore in the Philippines, killing five people and stranding thousands on rooftops in the capital's worst flooding in more than 42 years.

The government declared a "state of calamity" in metropolitan Manila and about two dozen storm-hit provinces, said Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, who heads the National Disaster Coordinating Council. That allows officials to withdraw emergency money for relief and rescue.

--snip--

"The whole town is almost 100 percent underwater," Mayor Mon Ilagan said.
About 13.4 inches (34.1 centimeters) of rain fell on metropolitan Manila in just six hours, close to the 15.4-inch (39.2-centimeter) average for the entire month of September. The previous record was 13.2 inches (33.4 centimeters) recorded during a 24-hour period in June 1967, chief government weather forecaster Nathaniel Cruz said.

"However good your drainage system is, it will be overwhelmed by that amount of rainfall," he told The Associated Press.

He said poor maintenance of drains and waterways clogged with garbage compounded the problem.

Ketsana has crossed the island of Luzon and is entering the South China Sea. Ketsana is expected to increase in intensity to a Category 1 Typhoon before reaching northern Vietnam.

Heavy Atlanta Rain

I've been out of pocket for much of the week after returning a two week trip for business. During the entire week, we had some heavy rain in the Atlanta area. This culminated in a major rain event Monday with much flooding resulting in 10 deaths.

The hardest hit area was Douglass County to the northwest of Atlanta. Street flooding was so severe that many roads stayed blocked until as late as Thursday. Some schools were flooded completely and many homes were destroyed. Fourteen counties have been declared federal disaster areas.

Biden visits Ga. storm victims; more rain expected (AP)

Vice President Joe Biden on Friday pledged the federal government would help Georgia recover from the severe weather that swept through the Southeast, even as rain and the threat of more flooding was forecast for the weekend.

Biden toured the metro Atlanta area by helicopter and saw portions of the city still under water from the deluge earlier this week. At least 11 deaths in Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee were blamed on the storms.

"It's not Katrina in its scope, by any stretch of the imagination, but the impact on their lives, on your lives, we understand it is Katrina," Biden said.

President Barack Obama was closely monitoring the situation from the G-20 economic summit in Pittsburgh, Biden said. After touring the devastation that washed out roads and highways, the vice president visited residents who have been staying at a Red Cross shelter in Cobb County.

Gov. Sonny Perdue announced Friday night that 10 more counties were added to the federal disaster declaration, bringing the number of counties eligible for federal aid to 14.

This system surprised many in that it was not a tropical storm or even a depression. There were hardly any winds associated with the storms, just a heavy, continuous downpour.

Blame prolonged rains -- not big storms -- for Atlanta flood (CNN)

"This is something that's really impacting a lot of people and scientifically, it's an event that we don't see too often here in Atlanta -- especially when it's not connected to a tropical system," said Laura Griffith, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Georgia.

"When you're getting hit day after day with a couple inches of rainfall, that's where you start to see problems," she added.

Griffith said a low-pressure storm system moved into Georgia during the middle of last week. When it arrived, it feathered up next to a high-pressure system that was hovering over the East Coast. The result: It got stuck, she said.

CNN meteorologist Jacqui Jeras said the atmosphere over north Georgia is completely saturated with water. A new storm system has moved into place now and, at any disturbance, is ready to drop more water on Atlanta.

"It's just sitting there waiting for someone to wring the washcloth," she said.

An example of how much rain fell can be seen in the following video section submitted to The Weather Channel by a viewer.

Amicalola Falls is normally a gentle flowing water fall in the North Georgia Mountains. The picture to the left was taken by A this past summer.

After Monday's rain, these falls turned into a raging torrent.

Georgia Flood, Amicalola Falls, September 2009

Posted to Weather.com User Video by kahn on September 21, 2009

Click to Play View Details

Another 1 - 2 inches are predicted for the North Georgia region for today. As saturated as the ground is, flooding is a real possibility. A flash flood watch has been in place since Friday and lasts until Sunday. Fortunately the rain has not been too bad and may not amount to too much.

The rain combined with the runoff resulted in an increase in the level of lake Sidney Lanier of close to 4 feet. The lake remains below full pool and is now at the highest level since the two year drought of 2007 - 8. If anythign positive came of this rain, filling the lake is a good thing.

Typhoon Choi-Wan drops significantly in intensity

Typhoon Choi-Wan is making its closest approach to Japan today as it moves parallel to the coast. This storm dropped from a major Category 3 storm to a Category 1 very quickly. Maximum wind speeds are now 70 knots (35 m/s) near the center with gusts up to 100 knots (50 m/s).

The Japan Meteorological Agency is showing that Choi-Wan's track will slowly turn more to the east over the next few days and the forward mothion will slow slightly. Forward motion is currently stated at 50 kph with a direction of NNE dropping to 30 kph with a ENE direction by Monday local time.

Typhoon Choi-Wan finally turns away from Japan

This week I have had somewhat limited Internet access and a rather busy schedule with my day-job so I have have not been able to maintain updates of the tropical activity in the western Pacific. A few typhoons of tropical strength came ashore in south China and Vietnam causing a great deal of flooding. Typhoon Koppu caused a lot of flooding and destruction as it passed over the Philippines as a tropical depression before heading to China and Vietnam.

Typhoon Choi-Wan is currently churning in the western Pacific as a very dangerous storm. Choi-Wan had been heading steadily towards Japan and has finally turned towards the northeast. Choi-Wan had reached super-typhoon status with sustained winds as high as 160 mph (255 kph). While at full strength, Choi-Wan passed over the Northern Mariana Islands. These islands only have 15 inhabitants all of whom were uninjured. The government has requested assistance from the US Navy in evacuating all inhabitants and helping with recovery efforts. The storm hit these islands hard destroying everything in its path.

All residents of Alamagan, Agrihan facing evacuation (Saipan Tribune)

A family of six, including a newborn baby, were flown by military helicopter from Alamagan to Saipan Thursday and the CNMI government is now trying to evacuate all 12 other residents on Alamagan and Agrihan due to the utter devastation sustained by both islands in the wake of Super Typhoon Choi-Wan.

Mark Pangelinan, Emergency Management Office deputy director, told Saipan Tribune yesterday that they informed Northern Islands Mayor Valentine Taisakan of their decision-“evacuate everybody, whether they like or not.”

“Everything on Alamagan is a total damage. It's a total loss,” Pangelinan said.

One of two U.S. Navy helicopters picked up a family of six, including an infant, from Alamagan Tuesday morning and flew them to Saipan. The baby was born on Alamagan on Sunday.“We had to medivac the newborn baby.

We transported them all to the Commonwealth Health Center for medical checkup, all for precautionary measures,” Pangelinan said.

After being checked, the mother and the baby were released from the hospital yesterday. All six are now in a shelter at the Ada Gymnasium in Susupe.

--snip--

Pangelinan said all six houses on Alamagan-made up of wooden and tin materials-were blown away. He said only one structure remains standing-a facility for aboratory and research.

Packing 150 to 160 miles per hour, Super Typhoon Choi-Wan's center passed directly over Alamagan Tuesday afternoon.

Navy Helps Northern Islands of CNMI Recover From Super Typhoon Choi-Wan (Pacific News Center)

Following the aftermath of Super Typhoon Choi-Wan, USNS Alan Shepard (T-AKE 3) and two MH-60S helicopters from Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron (HSC) 25 arrived on station in the early morning hours of Sept. 17 to provide humanitarian
support to residents of Alamagan and Agrihan.

Choi-Wan has reduced its intensity slightly to a Category 3 storm. Further intensification is expected this weekend followed by a steady decrease in winds as the storm heads to cooler waters to the north.

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon KOPPU

I am in Europe on business this week and have not been abnle to keep up with all of the tropical situations around the world. Typhoon Koppu was TD #16 which passed over the Phillipines this past weekend. According the CNN World News (the first US news I've seen since Sept 6) this storm resulted in severe flooding and loss of life. I don't know the detaisl but it was the third tropical depression in the Asia Pacific region that resulted in loss of life and heavy damage.

 

---

 

Storm Alert issued at 14 Sep, 2009 18:00 GMT

 

Typhoon KOPPU is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Macau
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Hong Kong
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
        probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
    Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Depression MUJIGAE

Typhoon Mujigae is posed to stike China's Hainan Island within the next 12 hours. As this storm is really still a tropical depression, hopefully any damage will be minimal. Residfnts will have to watch for local flooding and the potential for light to moderate wind damage.

 

---

 

Storm Alert issued at 10 Sep, 2009 18:00 GMT

 

Tropical Depression MUJIGAE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    China
        probability for TS is 70% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
        probability for TS is 50% currently
    Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
        probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Tropical rain system hits the east coast

A storm system with tropical characteristics has been trying to form off the North Carolina and Virginia coasts. This system moved out to sea for a short while but is now being steered into shore in the mid-Atlantic area of the east coast.

A high pressure ridge over Long Island is peventing this system from moving to the northeast and away from land so instead the steering currents are driving it into New Jersey Delaware and as far inland as Pennsylvania

Storm with Flooding Rain Revisits the Mid-Atlantic (AccuWeather)

A storm along the mid-Atlantic that went through a weakening phase Wednesday is now strengthening and drifting closer to the coast. The system has had a history of tropical rainfall this week.

After dumping 5-10 inches of rain in portions of eastern North Carolina early this week, the storm is boomeranging and is expected to plow into the Delmarva Friday.

With it will come a zone of 2- to 3-inch rainfall as far inland as south-central Pennsylvania.

Locally 5 inches or more could fall in this area

--snip--

The zone AccuWeather.com meteorologists are most concerned about lies in a swath from Salisbury, Md., to Atlantic City, N.J., inland to Harrisburg, Pa., and Martinsburg, W.Va. The worst of the rain and potential flooding may hit overnight tonight into Friday midday.

The system will break up on Saturday, but not before bringing some rain and drizzle for at least part of the day over southern New England, New York state, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

Typhoon Mujigae headed for southern China and northern Vietnam

While this storm is still a tropical depression with 35 MPH winds, it has already been named. Tropical Depression Mujigae formed east of China's Hainan Island and is heading due west. The storm is expected to cross the island Friday and enter the East Sea sometime Friday night or Saturday morning. A second landfall will occur Saturday evening.

Storm Mujigae emerges in East Sea (Thanh Nien News)

A new tropical depression in the East Sea strengthened into a storm early
Thursday morning and would likely head west at 15 kilometers per hour within the
next 24 hours, Vietnam’s national forecast center has said.

Storm Mujigae, the seventh to hit the East Sea this year, is expected
to be around 200 kilometers east of China’s Hainan Island by 4 a.m. on Friday,
according to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting.

Typhoon No. 7 - Mujigae (Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control)

As the influence of Mujigae, the northern part of the northern area of the Ease sea (including Hoàng Sa Islands) faces with wind force of Level 6, 7. The area near Mujigae’s centre is of Level 8, 9 with gusts of Level 10, 11.

The sea is very rough.From September 11’s night, the area from Quang Ninh to Nghệ An will face with strong wind of Level 6, 7. The area near the storm No. 7 centre will have wind force of Level 8 with gusts of Level 9, 10.

Besides, that the storm’s influence combines with Northwest monsoon will cause wind force of Level 6, 7 with gust of Level 8 in the sea area from Bình Thuận to Cà Mau. The sea is rough.

High land and Southern area face with heavy rain.

Tropical Depression 13 causes damage in Vietnam

A little known tropical depression formed and came ashore during the last couple of days. Typically this would just be considered a strong rainstorm and that would be the end of it. But this depression came ashore in the middle and southern provinces of Vietnam and caused several deaths and damaged many buildings.

One tropical depression is weakening and one other is emerging fast (Relief Web)

The storm is weakening now but the damage is quite severe:

Human
- No. of deaths: 06 (adding two people in Lak district, compared to the previous reports)
- No. of people missing: 05 (adding one in Bình Định, compared to the previous reports)
- No. of people injured: 09 (stay the same as previous reports)

Assets:
- Houses had their roof blown away: 84
- Landslide: 5.695m3
- Rice fields flooded: 13.970 ha
- Short-term crops flooded: 8.990 ha

Hurricane Fred Strengthens

Initially, Hurricane Fred was not expected to intensify beyond tropical storm strength. Now that storm is a category 2 storm and continues to grow. Fred may reach Cat 3 status before slowly dying as he moves to the north.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/weather/09/09/tropical.storms/index.html?eref=igoogle_cnn  (CNN)

At 5 a.m. ET, Fred was packing winds of 105 mph (165 km/hr) and was about 500 miles (805 km) west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.

Fred was moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/hr) and was expected to turn toward the northwest and then the north-northwest over the next few days as its forward speed decreases

Fred becomes a hurricane

Tropical Storm Fred has intensified to become Hurricane Fred in the Atlantic last night. Sustained winds of 75 MPH were recorded around midnight.

Fred becomes a hurricane; Tropical Storm Linda strengthens (CNN)

"Fred is now a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale," the center said. "Additional strengthening is forecast during the day or so, followed by slow weakening beginning on Thursday."

--snip--

At 11 p.m. ET, Fred was packing winds of 75 mph and was about 445 miles (715 km) west-southwest of the southernmost islands in the Cape Verde chain.

Fred was moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/hr) and was expected to turn toward the northwest over the next few days.

A National Hurricane Center forecast map shows Fred becoming a tropical depression on Sunday.

Tropical Storms Fred and Linda

Fred and Linda are the latest named storms to form this tropical season.

Tropical Storm Linda formed in the eastern Pacific and currently has 50 knot sustained winds. Linda will increase in strength reaching Category 1 status sometime tomorrow local time. After that she will die down returning to a depression by the end of the weekend.

Linda's track is taking her to the north and she will not be a threat to land.

Tropical Storm Fred formed south of the Cape Verde Islands and is currently to the southwest of the islands. Fred's projected path is a wide curve to the west and then to the north. Fred also will not be a threat to any land masses. Fred is projected to top out at 60 knot winds.

A storm becomes a hurricane when its sustained winds reach 64 knots or 74 MPH (119 km/hr).

Tropical Troubles? (AccuWeather)

Any Tropical Trouble? Semi-Tropical Trouble - Frank Strait's videoblog (AccuWeather)

AccuWeather meteorologist Frank Strait provides a comprehensive rundown of areas that may provide tropical development in the near future.

Some of these areas include some development along the US east coast near North Carolina and Virginia. Looking at the radar, it is clear that circulation is starting to develop but whether the system can develop enought strength to amount to anything is yet to be seen.

A system coming off the coast of Africa has the potential to develop and could become the next hurricane of the season. However it is going to move off to the north and won't be a threat to any land areas.

In the Pacific a tropical depression has developed and is moving to the west. Tracking maps indicate that this system will become a tropical storm but will turn to the north and travel out to sea.

Another area that Frank Strait doesn't comment about is TD Dujuan. Dujuan was recently downgraded to a depression and is moving parallel to the Japanese coast. Tracking indicates that DuJuan will once again grow to be a tropical storm but is heading away from land and will likely not be an issue.

Tropical Storm THREE forms near the coast of India

Tropical Storm THREE formed right near the coast of India near Bangladesh and quickly headed ashore passing over the city of Kolkata.

Tropical storm Three (Reuters - Alert Net)

Tropical storm Three is forecast to strike India at about 06:00 GMT on 5 September. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 21.8 N, 88.2 E. Three is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 64 km/h (40 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

Public Advisory (Weather Underground)

Tropical cyclone (tc) 03b (three) located 40 nm south of Kolkata,India, has tracked north-northeast at 12 knots over the past 06hours. A 050730z met-7 visible satellite image shows deep convection over the low level circulation center (LLCC) with a broken convective band wrapping into the southeast side of the LLCC. Recent Dvorak intensity estimates from pgtw and knes indicate the systemhas intensified to 35 knots at the center. The system is expected to be short lived and will diminish in intensity as land interaction causes the system to dissipate inland.

Erika and Jimena dissipated

The remains of tropical depression Erika are nothing more than a low pressure rainstorm drifting across the northern Caribbean. Continued rain will soak the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico throughout much of the weekend.

ERIKA - Jimena Dissipating (Weather Channel)

Erika was downgraded to a remnant low over the northeastern Caribbean late Wednesday, and the final advisory was written by the National Hurricane Center.

Areas of locally heavy downpours may spread across parts of the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, as the remnant low makes a turn to the northwest.

The story of Erika may not be totally closed, however. As the remnants of this storm drift to the northeast, the water temperatures and wind shear will be much more favorable for development. After being battered since it's develeopment, Erika may still have a chance to become an organized system.

Erika Down but Not Out (AccuWeather)

All that is left of Tropical Storm Erika is a blob of moisture over the eastern Caribbean. During the past 36 hours, the storm has been attacked by dry air and wind shear, and there is almost no circulation left.

Erika is down, but not out. The remnants of the storm will drift toward the northwest this weekend and be in a much more favorable environment once it reaches the Bahamas late Sunday and Monday. If there is anything left of the disturbance by then, it could regenerate well to the east of Florida early next week.
Commentary by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.

In the Pacific, Jimena has been completely torn apart. This storm is no longer a tropical depression. From the Weather Channel article referenced above:

Jimena is now a remnant low and will continue to dissipate.

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible from the central Baja to adjacent parts of the
western Mexico coast.

Some moisture from Jimena will mix in with moisture already in place over the interior Southwestern U.S., including parts of Arizona and New Mexico, this weekend. This will help to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity already there.

Tropical Storm Dujuan forms in the western Pacific

Tropical Storm Dujuan formed in the western Pacific and is heading towards the northeast with winds of 40 MPH and gusts of 50 MPH. Dujuan is heading towards Japan and is projected to continue onthis path until early next week. At that time Dujuan is expected to reach Typhoon status and then turn more towards the east. We will have to watch this storm closely to see if it threatens the main Japanese island. At this time it is too early to tell but we will know more after the weekend.

Tropical Storm Jimena breaking up

Tropical Storm Jimena slammed into Baja California Sur on Tuesday as a severe storm and crossed the peninsula slowing down and dropping in strength to a tropical storm along the way. Yesterday the path of Jimena looked like it was heading back across the peninsula towards the Pacific Ocean.

Video: Jimena Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (Associated Press)



It appears that Jimena is pulling itself apart now. The eye of the storm is indeed heading across land to the west while the major activity spins off to the east. This is exposing the storm center which will quickly lead to Jimena's demise.

Jimena Being Ripped Apart (AccuWeather)

...wind shear is ripping the storm apart. All the convection has been torn away to the east, while the center continues to spin around over the northern Baja California Sur (Mexican State).

The moisture cut loose from the storm continues to dump heavy rain up to the Sierra Madre Occidental Mountain range in western Mexico. The greatest impact has been in the Mexican states of southern Sonora and northern Sinaloa where 6 to 12 inches of rain has caused flooding and mudslides.

Heavy rain in the northwestern Mexican state of Sonora have resulted in the evacuation of 400 people due to flooding and mudslides. 50 millimeters of rain have fallen in the region since last night.

Several neighborhoods were inundated in the town of Guaymas where flooding and mudslides were the worst.

Desalojan a 400 por Jimena en Sonora (El Universal)

Intensas lluvias en el sur del estado provocadas por Jimena en las últimas horas, provocaron que unas 400 personas fueran desalojadas de zonas de alto riesgo y trasladadas a albergues, confirmaron autoridades.

El director de la Unidad Estatal de Protección Civil, Wilebaldo Alatrsite Candiani indicó que el principal problema se presenta en el municipio de Guaymas, donde se registran varias colonias inundadas y deslaves en cerros.

"En Guaymas tenemos el mayor problema, unas 400 personas fueron trasladadas a los albergues temporales y se espera que siga lloviendo", dijo el funcionario estatal.

Por su parte, el jefe de meteorología a nivel regional de la Comisión Nacional del Agua, Martín Barrón Félix señaló que en Guaymas y Empalme se han registrado precipitaciones de alrededor de los 50 milímetros acumulados desde ayer por la noche.

Erika drifts west and weakens

Well I had to focus on my day job for the past couple of days and what happens... Erika develops, threatens to strengthen and instead peters out. Oh well.

Tropical Storm Erika formed the other day in the Atlantic near the Caribbean. At the time we reported that the prediction was that if Erika strengthened, she would be pulled to the north along the East Coast. If she weakened then the storm would drift to the west into the Caribbean. This is exactly what happened. Erika slowly decreased in strength throughout the day yesterday and last night. Earlier today she was downgraded to a tropical depression. Most likely she will degrade further and lose all her circulation becoming just a tropical rainstorm.

TD Erika is now drifting to the west south of Puerto Rico. Friday night and Saturday, Erika will cross over the mountainous island of Hispaniola which will probably tear apart any organization she has left. With dry air, wind shear and the islands of the Caribbean, it is likely that we are seeing the end of Erika.

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane JIMENA

Hurricane Jimena is making its way across Baja California. Here is the latest strike probabilities from Tropical Storm Risk.

Storm Alert issued at 2 Sep, 2009 21:00 GMT

 

Hurricane JIMENA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Rosarito (26.5 N, 111.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Guaymas (28.0 N, 111.0 W)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Guerrero Negro (28.0 N, 114.1 W)
        probability for TS is 60% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Punta Prieta (29.0 N, 114.2 W)
        probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours
    Hermosillo (29.1 N, 111.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Hurricane Jimena weakens to Cat 2 but still dangerous

Hurricane Jimena slammed into Baja California early this morning as a Category 2 storm. While not nearly as dangerous as the Cat 4 it was originally while approaching Baja, this is still a severe storm. Heavy rain and winds as high as 100 MPH can cause significant damage.

Hurricane Jimena 'near or over' Mexico's coast (CNN)

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/weather/09/02/hurricane.jimena/index.html

As of 8 a.m. (11 a.m. ET), Jimena, a Category 2 storm, was about 30 miles (45 kilometers) north-northeast of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico, and about 255 miles southeast of Punta Eugenia, Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said.

"During the past few hours, the center of Jimena has moved near or over the coast of Mexico near Cabo San Lazaro," the center said.

The storm had lost much of its punch from earlier, when it was a Category 4 hurricane, and by Wednesday morning its maximum sustained winds were about 100 mph with higher gusts, the center said.

Weakening is forecast over the next day, but Jimena is still expected to be a hurricane when it moves inland, the center said.

Jimena was moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 kph), the center said, and was expected to slow down over the day or so.

"On this course, the core of Jimena will be near or just offshore the west coast of the southern Baja California peninsula today, and near or over the central Baja California peninsula on Thursday," forecasters said

Unfortunately, the rain from Jimena will not reach the wildfires in southern California. If they continued on the current north-northwest track, they would pass over the area and the fires would be out in a  day. Instead a high pressure system is blocking the storm which will instead curve towards the east dumping rain over the desert southwest of the USA.

No Wildfire Relief From Jimena (AccuWeather)
http://www.accuweather.com/regional-news-story.asp?region=westusnews

Jimena is currently pounding southern Baja California, less than 800 miles southeast of downtown Los Angeles. The storm is traveling to the north-northwest and could bring Southern California beneficial rain if it were to continue on this path. The two late-week scenarios for Jimena do not involve the storm heading in that direction.




Jimena will push onto Baja California today into Thursday, weakening in the process. The storm will then either curve northeastward towards the Four Corners, or head back into the Pacific Ocean. The strength of a high over the Rockies will determine this movement. Either way, Jimena will not reach Southern California.

Jimena Won't Douse Fires (AccuWeather)

http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=rss&article=0

The southern half of Baja California is being soaked by torrents of rain from Hurricane Jimena. If you could bring all that moisture up into Southern California, those wildfires would be out in a day. Sorry folks, but that's not going to happen. Jimena is going to break apart long before it gets far enough north to be any help. The best case scenario would be scattered showers getting into Southern California over the weekend, but an all-out rain event won't happen.

The reason that Jimena can't come north is a blocking high pressure system centered over the southwestern United States. The high will force the storm to stop dead in its tracks later Thursday and Friday. That means excessive rainfall for central Baja California but very little moisture farther north.

Story by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.

Tropical Storm Erika forms in the Atlantic

Tropical Storm Erika formed today in the Atlantic just east of the windward islands. According to The Weather Channel Tropical Update, the path of this storm will be influenced by how strong the storm becomes.

Early indications are that Erika will develop into a hurricane sometime next week. First she must pass through some nasty pressure systems that may interfere with further development at first. Once through that gauntlet then Erika can intensify. If she remains weak, then she will likely head more westerly towards Florida. If she strengthens a bunch then she may be propelled up the east coast followign the paths of Bill and Danny.

Video: Erica stalls while Jimena weakens (The Weather Channel - Includes update on Hurricane Jimena)

Tropical Storm Erika formed in the Atlantic late on Tuesday. Erika is centered about 390 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph and has become nearly stationary. It should resume a WNW movement later tonight. Tropical storm watches have been issued for the northern Leeward Islands. Residents of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will have to watch this system carefully. Even if Erika remains a tropical storm, it could be capable of producing heavy rain and widespread flooding.

Intense Hurricane JIMENA weakens slightly

Hurricane Jimena has weakened slightly from nearly a Category 5 storm to a strong Category 3. With sustained winds of 125 MPH this is a drop in windspeed of 30 MPH - a MAJOR difference. The effect of this much lessening of windspeed is significant when talking about the amount of damage that teh storm can do.

 

Of course, Jimena is still a major hurricane. Weak structures, trailer homes low-lying areas are all at risk of damage. The potential for power outages in higher elevations is even possible as some stronger gusts and heavy winds are still active in the upper layers of the storm. 

 

Additionally, the winds just died down recently as cooler sea water from the California current interacted with the sea water near Jimena. The storm surge that had been produced when Jimena was a Cat 4+ needs time to die down. As close as this storm is to the southern tip of Baja California, there is no time for the surge to die down. The effect will be a storm surge as high as 15 - 25 feet along the western shore.

---

Storm Alert issued at 1 Sep, 2009 21:00 GMT

 

Intense Hurricane JIMENA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
        probability for TS is 95% currently
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    Rosarito (26.5 N, 111.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
    Guerrero Negro (28.0 N, 114.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Punta Prieta (29.0 N, 114.2 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
    Guaymas (28.0 N, 111.0 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Evacuation is needed ahead of Jimena

The National Civil Protection System (SINAPROC) of Mexico has warned that Hurricane Jimena will be dangerous to those people who remain in southern Baja California. Heavy damage is possible due to the strong winds.

Jimena is moving northwestward at 17 km/hr placing the eye of the storm at landfall Wednesday morning in the vacinity of Puerto San Carlos with very strong winds beginning mid-day Tuesday (today)

Avierten será peligroso (Frontera.info)

El Sistema Nacional de Protección Civil (Sinaproc), informó este lunes que el huracán “Jimena” se ubicó a las 16:00 horas sobre el Océano Pacífico, a 490 km al Sur de Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur, presentando vientos de 250 km/hr y rachas de hasta 300 km/hr, que lo clasifican como un huracán intenso y extremadamente peligroso de categoría 4, muy próximo a ser categoría 5, en escala Saffir-Simpson.

Según un boletín de prensa, se realizó una reunión del grupo interinstitucional para ciclones tropicales, la Coordinación General de Protección Civil, en donde se alertó sobre las posibilidades de que este fenómeno siga avanzando hacia las costas nacionales y provoque efectos fuertes de lluvia, viento y oleaje, en los estados de Baja California Sur, Sonora y Sinaloa, por lo que ha implementado acciones necesarias para mantener a salvo a la población.

“Jimena” se desplazaba este lunes hacia el Noroeste a 17 km/hr, por lo que se prevé que el ojo del huracán toque tierra la mañana de este miércoles en las inmediaciones de Puerto San Carlos, en la Bahía Magdalena, BCS, con vientos de hasta 175 km/hr y rachas cercanas a los 200 km/hr, aunque sus primeros efectos fuertes de viento y oleaje comenzarán a registrarse a partir del medio día de mañana martes en la zona de Los Cabos, para extenderse sobre el resto de la entidad.

El meteoro trae consigo oleaje, que a partir de esta tarde incrementará su altura hasta alcanzar los seis metros durante momentos del impacto, lo cual se convierte en una situación de riesgo para las actividades recreativas y comerciales, marítimas y costeras de la entidad, ampliando su radio hasta las costas de Sinaloa y sur de Sonora.

Officials are trying to convince people to evacuate but many are unwilling to leave their homes because of fear that their belongings will be stolen. Some people prefer to take their chances rather than risk loosing everything to theft. If this is true, they need to understand that they could lose eveything including their lives if they do not listen to the authorities.

Thousands flee as Hurricane Jimena roars toward Mexico (USA Today)

LOS CABOS, Mexico — Tourists fled resorts at the tip of the Baja California Peninsula as Hurricane Jimena roared their way Tuesday, but many slum dwellers concerned about looting refused to leave their imperiled shanties.

Jimena, a Category 4 hurricane with winds of near 145 mph, could rake the region of harsh desert fringed with picturesque beaches and fishing villages by Tuesday evening.

Police, firefighters and navy personnel drove through shantytowns, trying to persuade some 10,000 people in the Los Cabos area to evacuate shacks made of plastic sheeting, wood, reeds and even blankets.

"For the safety of you and your family, board a vehicle or head to the nearest shelter," firefighter Ricardo Villalobos bellowed over a loudspeaker as his fire truck wound its way through the sand streets of Colonia Obrera, a slum built along a stream bed that regularly springs to life when a hurricane hits.

While the storm's eye was forecast to pass west and north of the city, another 20,000 were expected to evacuate elsewhere in the peninsula. Schools, many ports and most businesses were closed. Rescue workers from the Red Cross and the Mexican military prepared for post-hurricane disaster relief, and two Mexican Army Hercules aircraft loaded with medical supplies arrived.

Right now evacuations are still voluntary, but the government says that it could force evacuations if necessary. Another issue is some tourists who have not left but are enjoyign the high waves and the surf.

Video: Riding out Jimena in a shack (The Weather Channel)

People need to understand that when you stay behind you place yourselves and others at great risk. Especially when you then call for help in the middle of the storm. At that point either no body is around to help you or the peson who does help is placign their own life in danger.

If you are in Baja California Sur and you are asked to leave - PLEASE GET OUT!

Hurricane Jimena beginning her drive onto land

Hurricane Jimena has been packing 155 MPH winds since last night. Technically this is ONE MPH below a Cat 5 storm - as far as I am concerned we are there. As my post yesterday afternoon noted, the destructive power of this storm is very high.

 

One good thing is that Jimena will have a good deal of interaction with land before she actually makes landfall - the point where the eye of the hurricane crosses the coastline. As a result, considerable weakening is expected by the time the strongest winds come ashore. This needs to be understood with some caution... these weakened winds may still be as high as a Cat 3 - 110 MPH give or take.

 

All of the weather services are forecasting a fairly rapid decline in Jimena's strength but she will pack quite a punch at least for the southern half of the peninsula. Everyone in the area should already have their preparations in place and either be hunkered down away from the wind or have evacuated to higher ground.

 

Flash flooding is a major concern with this storm as much of the area is desert and as such is not suited for heavy rainfall. Please watch for rising water and remember - Run from the water, Hide from the wind.

---

Storm Alert issued at 1 Sep, 2009 9:00 GMT

 

Intense Hurricane JIMENA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

 

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    La Poza (25.9 N, 112.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 90% within 9 hours
    La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours
    Rosarito (26.5 N, 111.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Guerrero Negro (28.0 N, 114.1 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours
    Guaymas (28.0 N, 111.0 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
    Punta Prieta (29.0 N, 114.2 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.