Sunspots effect global climate

Climate stability has never been a feature of planet Earth. The only constant about climate is change; it changes continually and, at times, quite rapidly. Many times in the past, temperatures were far higher than today, and occasionally, temperatures were colder.

Well once again we have another article showing how the output of the Sun is the primary controller of climate on the Earth. What a surprise. Politicians and environmental alarmists continually push to limit or halt climate change within some perceived acceptable level.

At the recent G8 summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel even attempted to convince world leaders to play God by restricting carbon-dioxide emissions to a level that would magically limit the rise in world temperatures to 2C.

The question I have is why do we think we need to limit global warming in the first place. The real problem we should be addressing is how can we adapt to the climate around us.

Climate-change research is now literally exploding with new findings. Since the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, the field has had more research than in all previous years combined and the discoveries are completely shattering the myths. For example, I and the first-class scientists I work with are consistently finding excellent correlations between the regular fluctuations in the brightness of the sun and earthly climate. This is not surprising. The sun and the stars are the ultimate source of all energy on the planet.

It is important to understand our climate and I fully support research to better understand and model climate in an efforts to better predict both long term and short term trends in the weather. Public policy, however, is a totally different situation. Liberal governments and politicians are advocating policy changes that are certain to reduce living standards, damage economies and repress the poor and middle classes around the globe.

Global climates are complex systems that are not yet understood. To claim that human activity is the sole cause for global warming is the height of arrogance. Especially with a gas that is naturally expelled by all mammals as a result of normal respiration. The data certainly shows a better correlation of global mean temperature with sunspot activity than with CO2 concentration.

UPDATE: Here is a commentary from the Calgary Sun that does a much finer job than I of bringing these issues to light.




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Ground based temperatures stable since 1998

So many climate alarmists and politicians continually claim that global warming and climate change are caused by human activities. Unproven "solutions" to the problem such as bogus carbon trading schemes and excessive taxation are being proposed by governments and others are dubious at best.

The salient facts are these. First, the accepted global average temperature statistics used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that no ground-based warming has occurred since 1998. Oddly, this eight-year-long temperature stasis has occurred despite an increase over the same period of 15 parts per million (or 4 per cent) in atmospheric CO2.

Second, lower atmosphere satellite-based temperature measurements, if corrected for non-greenhouse influences such as El Nino events and large volcanic eruptions, show little if any global warming since 1979, a period over which atmospheric CO2 has increased by 55 ppm (17 per cent).

Third, there are strong indications from solar studies that Earth's current temperature stasis will be followed by climatic cooling over the next few decades.

I have seen several articles discussing the possibility that global warming has peaked around 1998. I say possibility because if you understand the scientific method, the concept of uncertainty in measurement and read the information on climate change at Junk Science.com, you can easily understand that the precision of the measurement of a global temperature in ancient times is so poor that we cannot determine if warming has or is actually occurring. In other words, the level of noise in the measurements is larger than the degree of change that we are trying to measure.

To base public policy on such questionable data is outright scandalous. And if the IPCC measurements are correct than there is no problem anyway so wither way we do not need to spend the money.

Australia does not ask the World Bank to set its annual budget and neither should it allow the notoriously alarmist IPCC to set its climate policy.

In one of the more expensive ironies of history, the expenditure of more than $US50 billion ($60 billion) on research into global warming since 1990 has failed to demonstrate any human-caused climate trend, let alone a dangerous one.

Yet that expenditure will pale into insignificance compared with the squandering of money that is going to accompany the introduction of a carbon trading or taxation system.

... snip...

The costs of thus expiating comfortable middle class angst are, of course, going to be imposed preferentially upon the poor and underprivileged.

So once again the effect of misguided liberal policies is the redistribution of wealth at the ultimate expense of the poor.




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Tropical Depression 3-E

Another development in the eastern Pacific, TD 3-E has a short window (12 - 24 hours) available for development into a tropical storm. Then the sea surface temperatures will fall below the 25 degree C threshold typically required for cyclone formation. The storm strength will continue to diminish and will likely be non existent afte around 72 hours.

The storm is moving northwest and expected to turn towards the west. This storm will only be of concern to shipping interests as it will be steered far from land.

See the National Hurricane feeds in the sidebar for more information.

2007 Hurricane Workshop - Follow up

Yesterday I attended the 2007 Hurricane workshop in Houston. I posted the agenda Friday night in case anyone else might be interested and had some available time. Had I realized how good it would be I would have promoted it more.

The conference consisted of several focus sessions surrounding a general session hosted by Cecelia Sinclair, Meteorologist from Fox 26 in Houston. The general session consisted of the following presentations:

• Kenneth Mercado, CenterPoint Energy: "Turning on the Lights"

• Chief Thomas Lambert, Metropolitan Transit Authority of Harris County: "Evacuation of the Houston/Galveston Region"

• Dr. Chris Landsea, National Hurricane Center: "Seasonal Forecasts...What Good Are They?"

I attended these three focus sessions:

Evacuation of Houston/Galveston Region

Emergency management officials from Harris, Galveston and Fort Bend counties and the city of Houston discussed the changes in the evacuation plans in a panel discussion hosted by Bill Read, Meteorologist in Charge NWS League City, TX.

Hurricane Expert: The Inside Story from a Hurricane

Doug Kiesling, a severe weather photojournalist, described what it is like, with video and pictures, to be in the middle of a hurricane. He showed how storm surge can destroy substantial buildings. He also showed the impact of hurricane force winds. He had video footage from the center of hurricanes Charlie, Ivan and Katrina before all of the politics began.

It Could Happen Tomorrow

A Weather Service meteorologist hosted a Weather Channel production on what would happen if a major hurricane (Cat 4) struck the Houston/Galveston Region tomorrow.

The main take aways were:

1. Run from the water...Hide from the wind
2. Have a personal plan. Be prepare to follow that plan.
   
3. If you or anyone you know need any special assistance in evacuating please have them pre-register by calling 211.

The information from this conference is valuable to everyone living along the coast from Corpus Christi to New York. I will be posting on many of the discussions over the next few days.




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2007 Hurricane Workshop - Houston/Galveston

Post Deleted by Author

Tropical Storm Gonu

Tropical Storm GONU is heading for landfall in Iran. OK, I know that the Persian Gulf is not the Gulf Coast that I had in mind when I started this site but what-the-hey.

The Arabian Sea near the Strait of Hormuz has a lorge number of facilities on both sides of the waterway and there could certainly be an effect on energy costs on our side of the world so it is worth noticing. I've noticed around here that we are seeing a slight dip in gasoline prices this past week. Storms have the potential to disrupt services here in the Gulf of Mexico and with all oil and gas pricing linked worldwide a storm in this area of the world could have an impact on a local level.

Omani ports were closed and flights suspended at Muscat airport, but shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries up to 40% of world oil supplies, has not been disrupted.

The authorities at Sohar port closed all operations and evacuated the 11,000 workers.

"These people know the force of the sea and they're doing the right thing," said port spokesman Dirk Jan De Vink. "Most of them are leaving or have already left."

If shipping is halted in the strait, analysts said there could be panic in world oil markets and a steep rise in prices, at least for a short period.

This storm had some real potential. Now it is decaying from a tropical storm with 60 knot winds to 45 knots within the next 12 hours and will be a tropical depression by tomorrow. (Source: Tropical Storm Risk.com). It is interesting to note that Gonu actually reached Cat 5 status for a short while still over water before falling off in strength even faster that it had grown. As the storm makes landfall in Iran it'll likely be a rainmaker but not much else.

However, the cyclone caused much damage in Oman where the capital suffered damage and flooding. This storm was apparently the strongest to hit the area in several decades.

The original storm track began deep in the center of the Indian Ocean and headed on a northwesterly path for its entire duration.

Once again - if the same effect is seen in two places...

If the same effect is found to exist in two or more places that are connected by a common factor, then it is likely that the cause of that effect is common to both or all.

Investor's Business Daily (Hat Tip JunkScience.com) published a report last week discussing Global Warming on Neptune.

In a study recently published in Geophysical Research Letters, H.B. Hammel of the Space Science Institute in Boulder, Colo., and G.W. Lockwood of Lowell Observatory in Flagstaff, Ariz., found that Neptune's brightness appears to correlate with temperature changes on Earth. They also noted that Neptune's temperature warmed from 1980 to 2004.
...

"If changing brightnesses and temperatures of two different planets are correlated, then some planetary climate changes may be due to variations in the solar system environment," they write in their abstract.

I discussed a similar effect with regard to Mars over this past winter. Mars is also experiencing Global Warming as evidenced by the melting of its southern ice cap. That post was meant more to poke some fun but the overriding theory here is that changes in the intensity of the Sun is the primary driver in the climate changes we are seeing on Mars and also on Earth. Now similar climate changes can be seen on Neptune.

"The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars," is the conclusion of Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia.

That quotation appeared in a story on National Geographic's Web site written in February by Kate Ravilious, who, for some reason, thought Abdussamatov's explanation is controversial.

It makes perfect sense to us, though, that a warmer sun would increase temperatures on the planets within its system. Solar influence would be controversial only to those who refuse to believe that there might be other possibilities outside the theory that man is warming the planet with his carbon dioxide emissions.

This is the baffling point. The potential that measurable changes in the intensity of the Sun could cause climate changes on Earth should not be controversial at all. That it is happening simultaneously with other planets in the solar system should be an indication that there is a real cause and effect scenario here. Yet the alarmists all want to point to man made CO2 "emissions". Well it has to be human induced because that is the only way we can drive an agenda.

You know folks... it is the obvious agenda... the one where increases in taxes, shutting down of industry, reducing standards of living is what makes this political.

Abdussamatov is not a lone voice in supposing that solar activity is a likely cause of global temperature change. Astrophysicists Sallie Baliunas and Willie Soon have been telling us this for years.

"We're not saying that variations in solar activity account for all of the global rise in temperature that we are experiencing," Soon said in 1997. "But we believe these variations are the major driving force. Heat-trapping gases emitted by smokestacks and vehicles — the so-called greenhouse effect — appear to be secondary."

Yes, theirs is only a theory. But so is the assertion that man is causing the planet to warm. The latter theory just happens to be more widely known, thanks to those who have an irrational, unquestioning faith in it and a self-righteous press eager to ally itself with the environmental movement.

NASA administrator Michael Griffin is correct in questioning the urgency of Global Warming. (NPR) Several factors contribute to climate change on this planet. That we see similar changes on other planets lends credence to theories that contradict the full court press on anthropogenic global warming. We have to look at all the factors and compare the expected effects with data. Models are good for predictions and estimations but they must be confirmed with data. None of the climate change models have successfully predicted the amount of warming over a 1 -5 year period let alone predicting 100 years out into the future.

BTW: Pluto was also experiencing planetary warming in 2002. (Space.com) Could there be a connection to the other planets in our solar system heating up? Probably not but with Earth, Mars and Neptune all showing similar warming trends, the commonalities are solar output and cosmic radiation, not human produced CO2.






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The Rita evacuation - what should we do differently

The other day, a local talk radio host (and Houston at-large city councilman) Michael Berry posed the question "If you were King for a day... what would you have done differently during the Rita evacuation?" Since I'm not able to participate in the discussion via call-in due to early morning meetings, I thought it would be good to explore the issue here.

First of all, I was not surprised by the pace or the organization of the evacuation. Plans for evacuation were made far in advance and communicated to the overall area. Houston proper has a population of approximately 4 million people. Galveston has about one-half of a million people. In between these cities (where I live) is easily an additional 0.5 million or more people. At the time the evacuation was called, Hurricane Rita, a major hurricane, was heading right for us.

My wife took the kids at around 10 am and drove from our house to her mother's in Round Rock (north of Austin). The trip usually takes around 4 hours - that day it took 6.5. I left at 5:30 that afternoon after the announcement that starting at 6 pm you would have to follow the pre-planned evacuation route for your area and my area was to go in the opposite direction from my family so I left. It took me 16 hours for the normally 4 hour trip.

So first - what went right.

1. The routes were laid out and communicated very plainly to everyone who took the time to listen.
2. AM talk radio provided a forum for traffic reports in real time on what the best routes were in various areas.
3. People helped each other as they could providing maps and directions to the best route out or the nearest gas station with fuel.
4. All toll roads were free of charge during the entire event.
5. Mayor Lyda fully evacuated Galveston of all non essential people including providing transportation to those people who needed it.
   
6. Mayor White and Governor Perry adjusted their plan as the night wore on to compensate for the traffic, fuel shortages and other unplanned events.
   

When the DOT said that the freeways could not be made for counterflow to move the traffic, they found a way.

When cars were stalled out due to running out of fuel, they dispatched tankers to provide gas to get the cars moving.

Abandoned cars were towed which made sure that the vehicles were secured from criminals or the storm.

So after 16 hours of sitting in traffic, could it have been any better? You better believe it!

Things I would do differently in coordinating an evacuation (many of these are being implemented for 2007:

1. Tell people who are not in the flood areas to stay put. The primary cause for death in a hurricane is the storm surge. Rita was a major hurricane. Everyone was spooked big time by what we saw happen in New Orleans a month earlier. This led to the Mayor telling everyone in Houston to get out. Most of Houston is high ground and should not evacuate. Instead of getting more people to safety, all this did was to clog already crowded roadways.
   
2. Provide access between the freeways and the frontage roads. Some freeway exits were closed preventing people on the freeway from getting to the feeder roads for food, rest stops and gas. Likewise, once you were on a feeder road, you couldn't get back on to the freeway.
3. Extend counter-flow lanes on the freeways further east and south. A new system of hurricane lanes providing counter-flow traffic on the major freeways has been put into place. It has not been tested. The big issue I see with these lanes is that they begin too late. Each counterflow area begins well to the north or west of the city. Traffic backups began around Beltway 8, Hwy 3 and the Gulf Freeway all south of the city. We evacuees will still have to wait in traffic several hours before we reach the hurricane lanes and get any traffic relief. It is a very good idea that just needs to be expanded - especially south down 45 into Galveston.
4. Provide factual information for the return trip back home after the storms passes. The local news media regularly reported how bad the inbound traffic was after the storm of all the returning evacuees. Only one problem - IT WASN'T TRUE!!! As I listened to how bad the traffic was I watched the Transtar cameras on the web and saw that the highways were wide open. I drove through town at 65 mph listening to the radio telling people not to return because the roads were too jammed. If we can't trust the news for something as simple as traffic when the storm missed us then how can we trust them for honest information if the storm actually hit us head on?

These are some of my thoughts on how the evacuation could have been handled better. Overall I really think it went fairly well. Yes there was excessive traffic, anyone who drives on the Katy, the West Loop or either portion of I-45 knows that Houston is a giant parking lot every day of the week.

More traffic during a 2 county evacuation is to be expected. Bring drinks, some food something to read and make sure your tank is full. Then head out, get on the freeway, put it in park and relax. You will be there a long while. That much is not likely to change.

Tropical Storm Barry forms in the Gulf

UPDATE: Barry has moved ashore and lost much of its strength as it crossed over Tampa Bay. Now it is mostly a rainmaker in and area that has been in a bad drought for quite some time. Rainfall totals of 3 - 6 inches are expected. Interestingly, this storm is really moving quickly up the coast and is expected to strengthen once it reemerges over the Atlantic later today. It may be at tropical storm strength as it crosses over the Carolina coast Sunday and could reach the Jersey shore by early Monday morning.

---------------

For the first day of the 2007 tropical season, we start right off with Tropical Storm Barry. Barry is expected to come ashore on the west coast of Florida by mid-day tomorrow (Saturday) and head right up the east coast of the US. This is actually good news for much of Florida and southern Georgia which are currently in drought cnditions. This storm will be a welcome drought buster.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON
BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

Discussions:
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKED THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FOUND THAT THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 1000 MB WITH
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KNOTS.  INITIALLY...THE SYSTEM APPEARED TO
BE A SUBTROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER...SUPPORTING A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.
BARRY COULD RETAIN SOME NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE CYCLONE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND IS HEADING
TOWARD COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.  BARRY SHOULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS.   

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