Super Typhoon Megi slams Philippines

Super typhoon Megi made landfall in northern Luzon Island today at Category 5 strength with between 140 and 165 MPH sustained winds. The storm is the strongest typhoon the Philippines have faced in 4 years.

Typhoon 2000 is reporting that the storm has weakened slightly to a Cat 4 typhoon which is still an extremely dangerous storm for anyone in its path:

MEGI (JUAN) has just passed over or very close to Ilagan City in Isabela...and is now on its way to Kalinga-Mountain Province Area...weakened into a Category 4 Typhoon. Typhoon Conditions continuing across Northern Isabela, Southern Cagayan, Kalinga, and Mountain Province.

Residents and visitors along Northern and Central Luzon particularly Cagayan, Isabela, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao and Ilocos Sur should closely monitor the progress of MEGI (JUAN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

This typhoon has become deadly, killing at least one person and tearing roofs from houses and toppling power lines. The storm has wind gusts as high as 260 km/hr.

Deadly Typhoon Hits Northern Philippines(VOA News)

At least one person is dead in the far northern Philippines, where so-called "Super Typhoon" Megi crashed ashore with fierce winds and torrential rain around midday Monday.

Reports say roofs were torn off houses and electricity poles were toppled by the winds, which howled at sustained speeds of 225 kilometers per hour and gusted up to 260. One man was killed when he fell in a river.

Megi is described as the most powerful storm to hit the Philippines in four years.

Philippine authorities ordered thousands of people in Cagayan and Isabella provinces on Luzon island to move to safer areas. They say the heavy rain and high winds could damage buildings, power supplies and agriculture in the corn- and rice-producing region.

Track of Super Typhoon Megi

Super-typhoon Megi is on course to strike northern Luzon beginning this morning and making full landfall before the afternoon Monday. This storm is very dangerous and is currently the strongest storm in 2010 globally.

Super Typhoon Megi bearing down on Philippines

Super Typhoon Megi formed in the Western Pacific earlier in the week and has been on a course heading for Philippines northern Island of Luzon. It has since grown to such an intensity that it is the strongest storm in 2010 with wind speeds of 180 MPH and a central pressure of 895 mb.

Megi is Strongest Tropical Cyclone of 2010 (AccuWeather)

As of this morning, EDT, highest sustained winds about this extremely dangerous storm reached nearly 180 mph, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). At the time, the storm's eye was located about 370 miles northeast of Manila, Philippines.

Not only was Megi a "super" typhoon, it also held highest winds well above the minimum threshold (156 mph) for a Category 5 hurricane.

Central pressure about the small, well-marked eye was a low 895 mb, or 26.43 inches of mercury. This compares to the world-wide average sea-level pressure of 1013.5 mb, or 29.93 inches.

Super Typhoon Megi was on track to barrel across the northern end of Luzon, the biggest and most populous island of the Philippines, with potentially catastrophic effect.

Megi is headed for the provinces of Cagayan and Isabela in norther Luzon. Luzon is the most heavily populated island of the country. These two provinces are where the majority of the nations rice is grown. This storm could destroy crops as well as infrastructure as it barrels ashore.

Super-typhoon Megi heads for northern Philippines(BBC News)

Thousands of people in the Philippines have fled from their homes ahead of a powerful storm, Super-Typhoon Megi, which is expected to reach the north of the country early on Monday.

Megi, which has winds of up to more than 280km/h (175mph), is then forecast to move towards the South China Sea.

It is the strongest storm the Philippines has faced this year.

In 2006, a storm with winds of 155km/h triggered mudslides, burying villages and killing about 1,000 people.

The northern provinces of Cagayan and Isabela are on the highest storm alert.

Officials are warning of heavy rain and high winds that could damage buildings, power supplies and agriculture.

Emergency services have been stocking up on food and medicines, says the BBC's Kate McGeown in the capital, Manila.

Government forecasters say waves off the east coast could be greater than 14m (46ft). They have warned against travel to the region.

Thousands of soldiers and officers are on standby.

Trucks, rescue boats and food packs have been pre-positioned near vulnerable areas, said Benito Ramos, a senior disaster-response official.

"This is like preparing for war," he told the Associated Press. "We know the past lessons and we're aiming for zero casualties."

Schools in the north will be closed on Monday.

Farmers were being urged to harvest as many of their crops as possible before the typhoon hit, our correspondent says.

The area in the storm's path is one of the country's main rice-growing regions.

The government has called for evacuations ahead of the storm. Currently evacuations are voluntary but the government may forcibly remove people from their homes if necessary to prevent casualties. The Typhoon is expected to make landfall Monday morning local time.

Super typhoon roars towards Philippines

Megi could uproot trees, blow away houses made of light material, trigger landslides and cause storm surges in coastal areas, Philippine authorities said as they began evacuating people from vulnerable areas.

It is expected to hit the northern province of Cagayan on Monday, and as of Sunday afternoon was already 450 kilometres east of the area, the state weather bureau said.

The storm was packing maximum winds of 195km/h near the centre and gusts of up to 230km/h, making it a super typhoon, forecasters said.

"Some are still gauging the situation but those who are living in low areas have voluntarily gone to higher ground," said Benito Ramos, head of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.

He said thousands of people have already temporarily relocated from communities along the Cagayan river system, which had overflowed during previous typhoons.

President Benigno Aquino ordered all government agencies to be on high alert to prevent casualties, while the coastguard was instructed to ban all fishing vessels from setting off to sea in the north.

Hurricane Paula rapidly intensifies

Hurricane Paula intensified suddenly with windspeeds jumping up to 100 MPH from 75 MPH earlier today. Paula is a very compact storm in very warm waters. This is creating the situation similar to an ice skater who pulls in her arms and speeds up in a fast spin.

The waters in this area of the Caribbean are very warm but to combination of Paula's interaction with land and the presence of an approaching front make further strengthening unlikely yet the tightness of Paula is overcoming these negative factors.

Hurricane Paula winding up in the Caribbean(Washington Post)

History has shown that small tropical cyclones under the right conditions are quite capable of intensifying rapidly. Paula, in fact, underwent a cycle of rapid intensification unprecedented in the record books, as Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters explained earlier today:

Paula intensified remarkably quickly, setting a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength. The first advisory for Paula was issued at 5pm EDT yesterday, and Paula strengthened into a hurricane just twelve hours later, at 5am EDT this morning. Since reliable record keeping of intensification rates of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, when regular satellite coverage became available, no storm has ever intensified into a hurricane that quickly.
We will be watching Paula closely for any additional intensification.

Paula is expected to move slowly and somewhat erratically toward the Yucatan Channel over the next couple of days, as the steering currents remain weak. The official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center keeps the storm south of the Gulf of Mexico at or below Category 2 intensity.

Though Paula is situated over warm ocean waters capable of supporting a monster Category 5 storm, the atmosphere over this part of the world is, in general, not so hospitable. A band of strong westerly winds at high altitudes has settled across much of Gulf of Mexico and southwestern Atlantic. Partly associated with the annual southward shift of the jet stream during autumn, these winds exceed 60 mph in places.

Hurricane Paula is on course to brush against the Yucatan peniunsula and even cross near or over Cozumel and the hook to the northeast and strike the western tip of Cuba. From there, the track of Paula depends on whether the storm gets caught in the jet stream or not. If it does, then it will be pulled towards southern Florida, otherwise Paula will flounder around in the Caribbean for a bit longer.

Hurricane Paula is heading toward the western tip of Cuba(NOLA)

Hurricane Paula is headed toward the Yucatan Channel and extreme western Cuba, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Hurricane Paula is centered about 85 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and about 160 miles south-southwest of the western tip of Cuba, at latitude 19.6 north and longitude 86.0 west. It has maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and is moving north at 9 mph.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the coast of Mexico from Punta Gruesa north to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel, and for the province of Pinar Del Rio, Cuba.

Hurricane Paula is a small Category 2 storm, with hurricane-force winds extending out up to 15 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extending out up to 60 miles. The center of the storm is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel on Wednesday and be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Hurricane Paula threatens Yucatan

Graphic courtesy of spaghetti models.com

Hurricane Paula grew rather rapidly from a tropical storm yesterday to a low level hurricane with 75 MPH sustained winds and gusts up to 90 MPH. Paula proximity to land indicates that this storm will likely remain a Category 1 storm, but there is at least one model projecting the possibility that she may grow stronger and may even reach Category 2 status before touching the eastern coast of the peninsula sometime tonight or tomorrow morning.

Hurricane Paula Circling Between Mexico and Cuba(National Underwriter Property And Casualty Insurance News)

Hurricane Paula is now spinning between the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Cuba, and is expected to stay there into the weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The 16th named storm and the ninth hurricane of the 2010 hurricane season is currently a weak Category 1 storm with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph.

The NHC is reporting warm ocean temperatures that are conducive to hurricane intensification, but the atmospheric environment is not favorable for storm strengthening. The storm could gain strength within the next couple of days, followed by a steady weakening, the NHC said.

Within 12 hours of becoming a tropical storm, Paula strengthened to hurricane status, said modeler Risk Management Solutions (RMS).

--snip--

Right now Paula is about 190 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. The storm is expected to turn north-northeast today, followed by a turn to the north on Oct. 13 to approach the Yucatan Peninsula, possibly as a stronger storm

The primary concern is that Paula will bring 3 - 6 inches of heavy rain to an area that was drenched by Hurricane Karl just last month. The heavy rainfall could lead to flooding and landslides.

The Mexican coast from Punta Gruesa to Cabo Catoche is under a hurricane warning. A hurricane warning is in place for all of Cozumel as well. The rest of the coastline south to Belize and northward to San Filipe is under a tropical storm warning.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm PAULA

Tropical Storm Paula sprang to life today along the Caribbean coast of Central America. Development had been slow first due to wind shear and then from the interaction with land, but the storm was able to gain enough strength to become a strong tropical storm with 65 MPH sustained winds. As the alert from Tropical Storm Risk suggests, there is a reasonable probability that Paula will strengthen to a hurricane before striking land.

 

Tropical Storm Paula Forms in Caribbean (AccuWeather)

The 16th named tropical system of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has formed and has strengthened. Tropical Storm Paula is churning in the Caribbean and is slowly drifting northwestward.

 

As of 8 p.m. EDT Monday, Paula was located about 105 miles east of Isla de Guanaja, Honduras, moving to the northwest at 9 mph with sustained winds at 65 mph. Central pressure fell to 998 mb.

 

The Mexican government has issued a hurricane warning for the coast from Punta Gruesa northward to Cancún, including Cozumel. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Mexican coast from Chetumal northward to south of Punta Gruesa.

 

A tropical storm warning is also in effect for the coast of Honduras from Limón eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border, including the Bay Islands.

Paula is expected to reach the Yucatan by mid-week and either dissipate or curve towards Cuba and Florida. A high pressure system is located over Haiti and the Dominican Republic which is expected to steer Paula in a loop to the northeast, raking Central American coast and then heading towards Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba.

 

N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 11 Oct, 2010 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm PAULA (AL18) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Honduras
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently
        probability for TS is 90% currently
    Mexico
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
    Cuba
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Cozumel (20.4 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
    Puerto Lempira (15.3 N, 83.8 W)
        probability for TS is 55% currently
    Cancun (21.0 N, 87.0 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Belize
        probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Roatan (16.3 N, 86.5 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 21 hours
    Chetumal (18.5 N, 88.3 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Subtropical Depression #17 forms in Caribbean

Subtropical Depression #17 has formed in the Caribbean Sea and is expected to soon become Tropical Storm Otto. This system has been classified as "subtropical" because it has some non-tropical characteristics. These include interaction wuith a standard upper level low pressure system and a wide circulation around the system's center.

10/6: Cool mornings, warm afternoons ahead(MyFOXLubbock.com)

Here's part of the morning Hurricane Center discussion stating right now this is more like a tropical system but likely to become more extratropical (think regular low pressure system)

WHILE THE LOW IS NOT FAR FROM BEING MORE TROPICAL THAN SUBTROPICAL...ITS CURRENT LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...AT LEAST 120 N MI...AND ITS ENTANGLEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW LEAD ME TO START THE SYSTEM AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY OUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THAT LOW...WHICH WOULD PLACE IT INTO A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR STRENGTHENING WITH LIGHTER WIND SHEAR. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATERS AND THE MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE SEEMS LIKELY IN A DAY OR SO. BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...ONLY A SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BECAUSE IT COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO SHED ALL OF ITS SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... WHICH WILL PROBABLY HALT ANY STRENGTHENING AFTER THAT TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IVEN THE INITIAL SUBTROPICAL STRUCTURE...AND IS GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM.

Even if this sytem does strengthen to a tropical storm as expected, there is no threat to land as the storm is moving away from land into the open Atlantic.

Sub Tropical Depression 17 forms in the western Atlantic Ocean(NOLA)

As of 4 a.m. the center of subtropical depression 17 was located about 270 miles northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico and about 710 miles south of Bermuda west. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph. A turn toward the north-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected by late tonight. A turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed are forecast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the system could become a tropical or subtropical storm later today.