Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker

A single source reference on tropical weather predictions. With a traditional focus on the upper Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast we've maintained links to track all Atlantic Basin, Caribbean and eastern Pacific storm systems. We are now expanding our view to tropical storms throughout the world intending to be a comprehensive global storm tracking resource.

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Hurricane Irene's Storm Track

This is the projected storm track for Hurricane Irene courtesy of Weather Underground

Hurricane Irene slams into North Carolina

Radar Image courtesy of Weather Underground

Hurricane Irene came ashore near Cape Hatteras this morning around 7:35 am according to The Weather Channel. The storm came ashore with 85 MPH winds as a strong Category 1 hurricane. Irene's intensity was significantly reduced compared to just a day earlier when the storm was a Category 3 in the early morning and a Cat 2 throughout much of the afternoon and night.

Hurricane Irene makes landfall in N.C.; may hit Washington area Saturday night (Washington Post)

The brunt of the storm was moving north from Cape Hatteras and was expected to arrive in the Washington area late Saturday and into Sunday morning before heading toward New York and New England.

Hurricane-force winds battered the North Carolina coast, knocking out power in places.


The storm was on a track that experts have feared for decades as they watched the rapid expansion of coastal resorts and housing developments in the lowlands behind them. They have worried that a storm tracking along the shore line, renewing its force over the warm Atlantic and then ripping with each rotation like a circular saw into coastal areas, could produce unprecedented devastation.

“It looks like the track of Irene is going to have a major impact along the East Coast starting in the Carolinas all the way up through Maine,” said Craig Fugate, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Irene's weakening averted a worst case scenario but no one should assume that this means that there is no danger. Tropical Storm warnings extend very far inland and both a strong cat 1 hurricane as well as tropical storm winds can be very dangerous.

Additionally, the storm surge built up when Irene was a Cat 3 storm. As we have seen in the past, when a hurricane reaches high intensity and then decreases, the storm surge does not necessarily settle down and certainly not as quickly as the winds do. This will be a major concern as the hurricane progresses up the coast towards New York City and New Jersey. The coast in this region forms a right angle which will act as a funnel collecting the high surge of water and funnelling it up into New York Harbor thratening lower Manhatten, Queens, Long Island and the Jersey shore with dangerous surf.

Hurricane Evacuation Orders Ignored By Many (NBC News)

As Hurricane Irene spins toward New York and New Jersey, more than 1 million tri-staters in vulnerable coastal areas are under evacuation orders -- and many say they won't leave.

In Belmar, N.J. on Saturday morning, about a dozen surfers were ignoring warnings and taking advantage of the rough seas.

Nearby, resident Ava Nardelli was taking her morning walk and said her plan was to stay put.

"We're going to ride it out," she said.


In New Jersey, mandatory evacuations were ordered for Cape May County, coastal Atlantic County, Long Beach Island and a growing list of Monmouth County shore communities.

New York City's primary evacuation zone includes Battery Park City, Coney Island, Manhattan Beach, Far Rockaway and Midland Beach and South Beach in Staten Island. See the zone in orange on this map.

"There's no way in hell that we are leaving home," said Pat Jones, a resident of New York's Rockaways for 30 years. "This is my home, and I'm staying here and protecting my home. Wouldn't you?"

Mayor Bloomberg said Saturday that ignoring evacuation orders "isn't cute."

“Heed these warnings and get yourself to safety before the bad weather hits,” he said.

New York City will be suspending operation of mass transit in the affected areas by noon today (Saturday) and people need to understand that once the storm starts to hit the area, there are no longer any options to leave. If you live in a flood prone region that has been identified as an evacuation zone, the best situation is to leave if ordered or requested to do so.

Remember the adage - "Run from the water, Hide form the wind". Most deaths during tropical weath are due to drownings in floods, not from wind. So if your area is prone to flood, get out. A Cat 1 hurricane could bring 3 - 5 feet of water ashore above what the rain and normal tides are bringing.

Tropical Cyclone Talas Brewing

TS Talas [15W] - Update #002 (

Tropical Storm TALAS (15W) moving NW across the open sea with little change of strength

This weekend, TS TALAS is likely to interact (Fujiwhara Effect) with Typhoon NANMADOL (MINA) located over the Philippine Sea, east of Luzon.



TALAS (15W) is expected to move on a slow Northerly track throughout the forecast period with increasing intensity. This system will remain over open waters. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.

TOMORROW EVENING (FRI): Intensifying over the open sea...tracking North slowly...about 342 km SSW of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) [8PM AUG 26: 22.1N 139.7E @ 100kph].
SATURDAY EVENING (SAT): Upgraded to a Typhoon...about 249 km SW of Iwo To [8PM AUG 27: 23.1N 139.7E @ 130kph].

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Typhoon Mina (International Name: Nanmadol)

New typhoon threatens northern Phlippines, Taiwan (

A slow-moving typhoon may set off heavy rains, flash floods and landslides in the mountainous northern Philippines before gaining strength and barreling toward Taiwan.

Philippine government forecaster Raymund Ordinario says Typhoon Nanmadol is swirling 183 miles (295 kilometers) east of northeastern Aurora Province Thursday with sustained winds of 74 mph (120 kph) and gusts of 93 mph (150 kph).

Ordinario says the typhoon may not hit land but is expected to bring heavy rains with its wide cloud band and slow movement. Villagers in low-lying areas have been warned about possible floods and landslides.

Nanmadol is the 13th of 20 expected weather disturbances to hit the disaster-prone Philippines this year
Image Courtesy of Hong Kong Observatory iPhone Application

Video courtesy of: ITN News

Monday, August 22, 2011

Fwd: TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane IRENE

Irene has grown into a Category 1 hurricane and has been crossing the Caribbean inflicting damage on many of the islands there. Irenen is currently making landfall on Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic likely by mid day. Forecasts call for Hurricane Irene to increase in strength potentially becoming a major hurricane before striking the southeastern US by mid-week. Sotrm warnings are already in place throughout the Caribbean and for parts of southeastern Florida.

Whether Irene strikes Florida and comes inland or skirts the coast is yet to be determined but it is certain that flooding will be a major concern. Preparations should be underway to evacuate if you live in a flood prone area or to battten down if wind is a major concern.

Irene is the first hurricane to threaten the US coast since 2009 as no storms made landfall last year even though it was a very active season.

Remember the adage: Run from the water; Hide from the wind.


N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 22 Aug, 2011 9:00 GMT

Hurricane IRENE (AL09) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Puerto Rico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
the Dominican Republic
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Virgin Islands
probability for TS is 90% currently
the British Virgin Islands
probability for TS is 85% currently
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
the Bahamas
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
the Turks & Caicos Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
the United States
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Francisco De Macoris (19.3 N, 70.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 21 hours
Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 33 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours
Santo Domingo (18.5 N, 69.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 21 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours
Nassau (25.1 N, 77.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours
Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port-au-Prince (18.5 N, 72.3 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
Santiago De Cuba (20.0 N, 75.8 W)
probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Sunday, August 07, 2011

Tropical Depression Merbok

Hurricane Season 2011: Tropical Storm Merbok (Western North Pacific Ocean) (

NASA Sees Typhoon Muifa Almost Twice as Big as Tropical Storm Merbok

In one image, NASA's Aqua satellite captured two tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific today, Tropical Storm Merbok and the large Typhoon Muifa. NASA Satellite imagery shows that Muifa is almost twice as big as Merbok [below].

Image courtesy of Nasa.Gov

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured Typhoon Muifa near Okinawa, Japan and Tropical Storm Merbok, farther east in the western Pacific at 4:35 UTC (12:35 a.m. EDT) on August 5, 2011. By having the storms side-by-side in one image, it is much easier to see how Merbok is a lot less organized than the more powerful Muifa. Muifa also has an eye, although cloud-filled, whereas Merbok does not.


Tropical storm Merbok is not a threat to land areas, and is moving around in the open waters of the North Pacific. It is located 675 miles west-northwest of Wake Island near 26.8N and 155.3E. Merbok's maximum sustained winds are near 50 knots, and tropical-storm force winds extend 120 miles from the center, making the storm 240 miles in diameter. Merbok is moving to the north-northwest at 8 knots and creating 21-foot high waves.

Merbok is strengthening as it moves northwest and is expected to make typhoon strength before weakening and curving northeast.

Muifa Loses Steam as it Crashes Into China

Image courtesy of

Typhoon Muifa weakens as it moves further up China's East coast.

Gusty Typhoon Muifa set to Hit China (

Typhoon Muifa is set to bring gusty winds and rainfall to coastal areas of China late Saturday or on Sunday, after drenching the southern Japanese island of Okinawa.

The typhoon -- the ninth to hit China this year -- is headed for Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces, Xinhua News Agency reported.

The storm is expected to be east of the city of Shanghai, a major business and banking center, within the next 12 to 24 hours, CNN meteorologists say.

However, the typhoon will be weaker and less organized than it was previously.

2010 Atlantic Hurricanes (courtesy of

NOAA Gulf of Mexico Radar (courtesy of

NOAA West Atlantic & Caribbean Radar (courtesy of

NOAA East Atlantic Radar (courtesy of