Gulf Coast Hurricane Tracker

A single source reference on tropical weather predictions. With a traditional focus on the upper Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast we've maintained links to track all Atlantic Basin, Caribbean and eastern Pacific storm systems. We are now expanding our view to tropical storms throughout the world intending to be a comprehensive global storm tracking resource.

Monday, August 31, 2009

Jimena reaches Category 5

Alcanza 'Jimena' categoría 5 (Frontera.info)

El meteoro 'Jimena' se convirtió hoy en huracán categoría 5, el máximo nivel de la escala Saffir-Simpson, al alcanzar vientos sostenidos de 250 kilómetros por hora en el Pacífico mexicano y con rumbo a la península de Baja California, informó el Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN).

El SMN, que lo considera con un índice de peligrosidad "severo" , dijo que Jimena está a 475 kilómetros al oeste-suroeste de Puerto Vallarta, en el estado de Jalisco, y a 490 kilómetros al sur de Cabo San Lucas, en Baja California Sur.

Ante el cambio del desplazamiento del ciclón, que lo llevaría a impactar en costas mexicanas entre la noche del martes y la mañana del miércoles, el Sistema Nacional de Protección Civil (Sinaproc) decretó alerta amarilla (acercamiento-preparación).

La alerta amarilla implica que las familias deben prepararse para dirigirse a un refugio. Cada integrante debe saber en dónde reunirse si se llegaran a separar y deben tener a la mano ropa abrigadora.

Además, las autoridades recomiendan a los habitantes de las zonas en riesgo mantenerse atentos a los avisos de las autoridades.

El meteoro origina fuerte nubosidad en sus inmediaciones y en costas de Colima, Jalisco y sur de Sinaloa. Alcanza vientos de tormenta tropical en una distancia de hasta 130 kilómetros por hora y provoca olas de más de cuatro metros de altura cerca de las costas de Michoacán, Colima y Jalisco.

Hurricane Jimena upgraded to Category 5 (National Post)
LOS CABOS, Mexico -- Hurricane Jimena grew into a highly dangerous storm as it sped toward Mexico's Baja California peninsula on Monday, scaring tourists, prompting residents to sandbag homes and disrupting a top-level finance conference.

Jimena's winds strengthened to 250 km/h, reaching the threshold of a deadly Category 5 storm, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Category 5 hurricanes are the top of the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale and can be devastating if they hit land.

Hurricane Jimena continues to strengthen

Hurricane Jimena is a very dangerous Category 4 storm with sustained wind speeds now of 150 MPH and gusts up to 175 MPH as confirmed by hurricane hunter aircraft. An increase of 6 MPH in sustained winds speed would make Jimena a Category 5 hurricane.

Jimena strengthens, heading for Baja California (The Weather Channel)

As of 11 a.m. Pacific Time Monday, Jimena was located about 340 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. The Hurricane Hunters have found that winds have increased to 150 mph. A motion off to the northwest at 8 mph continues.

A turn more to the north-northwest is forecast and this would bring Jimena near southern Baja California on Tuesday. Jimena is expected to be a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) at that time.

A hurricane warning is now in effect for the southern end of the Baja Peninsula from Bahia Magdalena on the west coast around the southern tip of the peninsula and north to San Evaristo on the east coast (this includes Cabo San Lucas). A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are possible within 24 hours.

Hurricane watches have been issued farther north along the Baja Peninsula from Bahia Magdalena to Punta Abreojos on the west coast and from San Evaristo to Mulege on the east coast.

Hurricane force winds extend out 30 miles and tropical storm force winds out to 80 miles. Since the wind field is on the smaller side, the degree of damage will be
largely dictated by the exact track Jimena travels along.

We are in the range now where the effects of the storm categories get blurrred. An intense Category 4 hurricane with 150 MPH wind speeds is just as devastating in the damage it can cause as a 156 MPH Cat 5 storm. Jimena is dangerous. There is no way around it. Hurricane warnings have been issued for the southern end of Baja California and a hurricane watch has been posted further up both the western and eastern coasts of the peninsula.



Powerful Hurricane Jimena (AccuWeather)

Category 4 Hurricane Jimena will likely impact Cabo San Lucas and southern Baja California, Mexico with hurricane conditions later Monday night through Tuesday. Jimena quickly became a large and powerful hurricane, reaching Category 4 strength Sunday morning. As of 11 a.m. PST Monday morning, Jimena was located about 340 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico with sustained winds up to 150 mph and gusts up to 175 mph.

--snip--

Squalls associated with Jimena will continue to affect the southwestern Mexican state of Jalisco. The weather in Cabo San Lucas and the rest of the southern Baja California will deteriorate Monday night as the outer rain bands begin to affect the southern Baja. Hurricane-force winds will develop Tuesday, and winds over 100 mph are possible in Cabo San Lucas and the rest of the southern Baja Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

In addition to the powerful winds, very heavy rain is also expected. The southern Baja is basically a desert, so heavy rain can quickly lead to flash flooding. A storm surge of more than 10 feet is possible as well.

Storm track forecasts are now indicating that Jimena will likely cross over Baja California and enter the Gulf of California sometime Friday as either a tropical storm or a tropical depression. As the sea surface temperatures are very warm in the Gulf of California (30 C+), I would expect that we could se some slight intensification before Jimena makes a second ladfall just south of the California/Arizona border.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm KROVANH

Tropical Storm Krovanh is now skirting along the Japanese coast. From the tracking maps, it appears that this storm will not make landfall at all but instead brushed along the southern coastline.

Tropical Storm Brings Heavy Rain, High Winds to Tokyo (Bloomberg)

Tropical storm Krovanh approached Japan, bringing strong winds and heavy rain to Tokyo, forcing flight cancellations and halting shipments from oil refineries.

The center of Krovanh, the 12th storm of the western Pacific cyclone season, was 168 kilometers (104 miles) east of Tokyo at 7 p.m. local time, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

The storm’s maximum sustained winds measured 102 kilometers per hour, down from 111 kph earlier today. Krovanh was moving north-northeast at 30 kph, the agency said.

Krovanh is the second storm to approach Japan this month. The Tokyo area has also been rocked by three earthquakes in August, including a magnitude-6.5 quake that left one woman dead on Aug. 11. Twenty-three people died in flooding and storms attributed to Tropical Storm Etau, according to Japan’s Fire and Disaster Management Agency.

The weather agency issued warnings for heavy rain, high waves and stormy weather for Tokyo, neighboring Chiba prefecture, the location of Japan’s biggest international airport near Narita, and areas to the north. Krovanh was expected to bring as much as 5 centimeters (2 inches) of rain per hour.

Storm Alert issued at 31 Aug, 2009 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KROVANH is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours
Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Sunday, August 30, 2009

TSR Storm Alert - Intense Hurricane JIMENA

Hurricane Jimena has grown to become a massive Category 4 hurricane on course for the western coast of Baja California. The latest predictions show Jimena's storm track following right at the coastline which indicates that the peninsula will feel much of Jimena's punch. Jimena will reach Baja Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Category 4 Hurricane Jimena (AccuWeather)

Hurricane Jimena will threaten Cabo San Lucas and southern Baja California, Mexico, with hurricane conditions late Monday through Tuesday. Jimena has quickly become a large and powerful hurricane, reaching Category 4 strength Sunday morning. She was located about 515 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Winds had increased to 135 mph.

--snip--

Conditions will deteriorate on Monday. The outer rain bands will begin to affect the southern Baja. Hurricane-force winds will develop Tuesday. Winds over 100 mph are possible in Cabo San Lucas and the rest of the southern Baja Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.





Storm Alert issued at 30 Aug, 2009 21:00 GMT

Intense Hurricane JIMENA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Mexico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours
La Paz (24.2 N, 110.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm KROVANH

Tropical Storm Krovanh continues its steady march towards Japan. Forecasts are indicating that Krovanh may reach Typhoon strength before hitting land tomorrow.
 
Tropical Storm Krovanh to Bring Rain, Winds to Tokyo Tomorrow (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aJB2_RWX1Ags

Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Krovanh may bring rain and strong winds to the Tokyo metropolitan area as it passes off Japan's Pacific coastline tomorrow, according to the Web site of the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Krovanh was strengthening with winds of 55 knots (63 miles per hour) as it moved north-northwest at 13 knots, about 265 nautical miles south of Tokyo as of 5 p.m. Japan time. The storm is expected to approach the coast near Tokyo tomorrow before veering north- northeast.

Storm Alert issued at 30 Aug, 2009 18:00 GMT
 
Tropical Storm KROVANH is20forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
 
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
        probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
    Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
    Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
        probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
    Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
        probability for TS20is 40% in about 24 hours
    Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm KROVANH

Tropical Storm Krovanh will be slamming into Japan's southern coast during the day and evening today local time. The extent of Krovanh's crossing over land is based on when the turn to the east takes place. The longer the time before the turn, the further on shore this storm will drive.

Storm Alert issued at 30 Aug, 2009 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KROVANH is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Shizuoka (35.0 N, 138.5 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Kushiro (43.0 N, 144.4 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Sakata (39.0 N, 140.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Niigata (37.8 N, 139.2 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Saturday, August 29, 2009

Hurricane Jimena strengthens

Hurricane Jimena has increased in intensity to a Cat 2 hurricane. Jimena is expected to reach Category 4 status before reaching Baja California Monday night or Tuesday. Jimena will be a major hurricane as she skirts up the west coast of Baja. This places the worst side of the storm over land for essentially the entire length of the peninsula.

While landfall is not expected, heavy rains and at least tropical storm force winds can cause significant danage and threat of loss of life. Residents and visitors should be implementing plans now in preparation for this storm.

Strong Hurricane Jimena nearing Baja California coast (Examiner)

Hurricane Jimena quickly spun up into a strong hurricane by Saturday afternoon with forecasts projecting a possible category four future for the storm.

Jimena's path looks to move parallel to the west coast of Mexico and eventually off the coast of Baja California where large waves, tropical storm force winds and potentially heavy rainfall from the storm's outer bands may become likely in the next few days.

--snip--

Computer models suggest that Jimena will quickly strengthen into category four status with sustained winds in the 130 mph+ range from 36 hours to 48 hours into the forecast window.

Tropical Storm Kevin forms in the eastern Pacific

Tropical Storm Kevin formed off the western coast of Mexico today. Kevin is currently headed to the north but is expected to turn slightly towards the east. The computer models are rather divergent at the moment with most models showing that Kevin will flounder around without causing any trouble. One model does show the potential that Kevin will head towards Mexico but the liklihood of this is remote for now.



Tropical Storm Krovanh on course for Tokyo

Tropical Storm Krovanh is expected to turn to the north as it heads towards the southern Japanese coast. When the turn to the north and the the north-east occurs will determine how severely the storm affects land.

Tropical Troubles For Tokyo (AccuWeather)
The storm is now expected to head northwest over the next 24-48 hours, taking the center of the storm close to central Honshu near Tokyo on Sunday night or Monday morning.

The storm is expected to make an eventual turn to the north and northeast. The exact timing of this shift in track will determine whether or not Krovanh will make landfall in Japan. Regardless of whether or not landfall takes place, strong gusty winds and heavy rain are possible across central and northern Honshu on Sunday and Monday. This includes the city of Tokyo.

With very warm waters in its path and light wind shear over the system, Krovanh should strengthen into a typhoon on Saturday and remain a typhoon Monday. The strongest winds and heaviest rain are likely on Sunday night and Monday morning across central Honshu and around Tokyo. Wind and rain will spread northward across Honshu on Monday before the storm heads back out to sea. Localized flooding will occur as the storm will produce 4-8 inches of rain in some areas. Even if Krovanh passes east of Tokyo, winds may be strong enough to cause some damage.

Tropical Storm Jimena forms off Mexican coast

Tropical Storm Jimena formed off the western coast of Mexico yesterday afternoon as TD #13-E. Jimena was upgraded this morning to a tropical storm. Jimena is heading towards the west and is exected to reach hurricane status within a day. Storm projections indicate that over the next few days Jimena will grow to a major Category 3 storm, turn northwest and head for Baja California.

The storm track indicates that Jimena will pass along the western coast of Baja California subjecting the peninsula to the strongest wind and rain of the storm. Weakening of the hurricane may not occur until after Jimena begins interacting with land.

Tropical Storm Public Advisory(Weather Underground)

...Jimena rapidly intensifies...almost a hurricane...

at 600 am PDT...1300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Jimena was located near
latitude 14.2 north...longitude 102.8 west or about 270 miles...430 km...southwest of Acapulco Mexico and about 345 miles...555 km...south-southeast of Manzanillo Mexico.

Jimena is moving toward the west near 10 mph...17 km/hr. This general motion with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Jimena could become a major hurricane by late Sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm KROVANH (UPDATED)

Tropical storm Krovanh continues to strengthen south of Japan and is expected to strike the Japanese coast in the next 1 - 2 days as a Cat 1 typhoon.

Japan travel advisory: Typhoon to hit Tokyo and northern Japan on Aug 31th and Sept 1st (Examiner)
Typhoon 11 (Tropical Storm Krovanh) is predicted to crash into Japan on August 31th and September 1st (JST), traveling from Tokyo north towards Hokkaido, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. Heavy rains, strong winds, and high waves are expected throughout central and northern Honshu. People in the area are advised to take care.

Typhoon 11 (Tropical Storm Krovanh) details

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency (as of 9:50am, August. 29th JST), the typhoon is expected to travel north, north-west directly towards the greater Tokyo area. It will reach Japanese shores sometime during the morning of the 31st.

Tropical Storm Krovanh is currently traveling north at about 15 knots (17 mph), with average wind speeds as strong as 40 knots (46 mph) and wind gusts reaching 60 knots (69 mph). Wind speeds are expected to reach an average of 55 knots (63 mph), with wind gusts up to 80 knots (92 mph) when it arrives to Japan on the 31st.

Storm Alert issued at 29 Aug, 2009 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KROVANH is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Japan
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Iwaki (37.0 N, 140.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Tokyo (35.7 N, 139.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Miyako (39.7 N, 141.9 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Sendai (38.3 N, 140.9 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Tropical Depression DANNY - downgraded again

Not surprisingly, Danny has once again been downgraded and is now a tropical depression. The remnants of Danny are still a cause for concern due to the dangerous surf that this storm is creating. One 12 year old boy who was board surfing has been pulled out to sea in North Carolina by the rip currents. The board washed up on shore but so far authorities have not been able to find the boy, either alive or deceased.
 
Even though Danny is now a tropical depression, the wave action along the entire east coast is likely to be dangerous. I suspect that we will see beach closings again this weekend as we did last weekend for Hurricane Bill.
 
Danny is expected to continue up the coast skirting along Cape Cod and crossing over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in the same path as Bill did last week. Danny's remnants will even reach Scotland and Ireland in about 5 days.
 
Danny will soon become extratropical, possibly as soon as later today. One thing that we have noticed is that it appears that Danny's forward motion may be slowing. Earlier track forecasts showed Danny to be in the NYC area by tonight moving quickly up the coast. The current maps show that Danny is located off Cape Hatteras, NC and seems to be closer to land than originally expected.
 
The final warning for Danny issued by TSR is listed below. Most of the other weather services are likely dropping their reports as well. However, we need to keep a weather eye along the coast. I suspect (my uneducated opinion) that Danny's remains may linger around the Carolinas creating problems throughout the day today until the front finally pushes the storm out to sea on Sunday or Monday.
 

Storm Alert issued at 29 Aug, 2009 9:00 GMT (Final Warning)
 
Tropical Depression DANNY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
 
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours
    St. Pierre and Miquelon
        probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
    the United States
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours
    Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 33 hours
    Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
    Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 21 hours
    St John's (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 45 hours
    Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours
    Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 33 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Scotland
        probability for TS is 35% in about 117 hours
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 35% in about 117 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for TS is 35% in about 117 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours
    Bangor (44.5 N, 68.5 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 117 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 117 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 117 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 117 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Friday, August 28, 2009

Newport (RI) businesses wary of Danny



With tropical storm, Kennedy funeral, Boston faces a busy weekend (Boston Globe)

Weather forecasters warned today that Tropical Storm Danny may drench Massachusetts with several inches of rain Saturday, the day of Senator Edward M. Kennedy's funeral in Boston as well as a big move-in day for students in the academic mecca.

The National Weather Service issued a tropical storm watch this morning for some offshore areas south of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket and east of Cape Cod, warning of tropical storm force winds and seas building to 15 feet Saturday night.

Rain is expected to start early Saturday in the city and 2 to 4 inches could fall by the end of Saturday. Higher rain totals are expected on Cape Cod and the islands.

Danny may clip Nantucket about 8 p.m. Saturday as it takes a turn to the northeast, when the wind is expected to be howling near 46 miles per hour.

"I think rain is going to be more of a headline than the wind," said Frank Nocera, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Taunton.


The disorganization of Danny makes predicting its path more difficult. It is possible that this storm may swing wide in either direction as a result of the exposed center and lopsided activity.

Tropical Cyclone Krovanh heading for Japan



Tropical Storm Krovanh developed in the western Pacific today. The storm projections indicate that this storm is heading for the center of the main island of Japan and will intensify to a Category 1 typhoon and then weakening before making landfall.

The strike reports are showing that there is a 50% chance of Krovanh hitting Japan as a tropical storm in the next 48 hours. In 72 hours Krovanh has a 40 - 45% liklihood of striking Tokyo, Iwaki and Shizouka.

Fwd: TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm DANNY

Storm Alert issued at 28 Aug, 2009 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm DANNY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Canada
probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
St. Pierre and Miquelon
probability for TS is 90% in about 69 hours
the United States
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)
probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)
probability for TS is 90% in about 69 hours
St John's (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
probability for TS is 90% in about 69 hours
Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
probability for TS is 80% in about 45 hours
Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
probability for TS is 80% in about 45 hours
Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours
Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)
probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours
Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours
Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours
Bangor (44.5 N, 68.5 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Tropical Storm Danny weakens further, will bump coast

Tropical Storm Danny has weakened futher overnight. Winds have dropped down to 45 MPH and the eye of the storm appears to be even more exposed than during last night. Expectations now are that Danny will not exceed 50 MPH at the peak of its development.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for Nprth Carolina's Outer Banks. It does not appear that Danny will make a direct hit on the NC coast but heavy winds and rain are likely.

Tropical Storm Watch in N.C. Ahead of Danny (Fox News)

MIAMI — Forecasters have issued a tropical storm watch for the North Carolina coast ahead of Tropical Storm Danny.

Forecasters say large swells are expected to produce dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the U.S. East Coast over the next day or two.

The watch is in effect from Cape Lookout north to Duck, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

Danny is following a path parallel to that of Hurricane Bill except it will be much closer to the US.

Danny to Graze US Soil (AccuWeather)

Tropical Storm Danny is taking a track that is somewhat similar to last weekend's Hurricane Bill. Danny will pass in between Bermuda and the Carolinas tonight before slamming into the Canadian Maritimes Saturday night.

Danny will be different from Bill in the fact that this storm will pass significantly closer to the East Coast. The center of Danny will move either near or over the islands off southeastern Massachusetts later Saturday. Danny will also not be a hurricane at this point.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Danny weakens slightly; becomes disorganized

Tropical Storm Danny has weakened some with sustained wind speed dropping from 60 MPH to 50 MPH this evening. Additionally, Danny's organization has become much more ragged. The storm center is exposed which frequently is a sign that the storm is being torn apart.

Danny struggling southeast of the US (Weather Channel)

Tropical Storm Danny located well northeast of the Bahamas remains poorly rganized with the circulation totally exposed and all the thunderstorms off to the east of the circulation.

As of 8 p.m. Thursday, the center of circulation for Danny was located 515 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. Top winds are 50 mph.

Danny continues to struggle in a hostile environment. Danny is temporarily (moving) north near 6 mph and should continue moving in this direction Friday into Saturday as an upper-level trough deepens over the Central U.S.

--snip--

There remains a lot of uncertainty with the forecast track of Danny, and any slight deviation in track or change in the intensity early on could greatly alter the forecasts; this will determine if gusty winds and heavier squalls impact parts of the New England Coasts.

Based on the current forecast information, Danny could potentially make its closest approach to the Outer Banks Friday evening and make a closer approach to eastern New England Saturday evening before exiting into the Canadian Maritimes becoming extra-tropical.

It is possible that rain a gusty winds could impact eastern New England on Saturday.

As a result of these latest developments, at the moment Danny is not predicted to reach hurricane status. With the warm waters that could change but right now it may even be questionable just how well Danny stays together as a tropical storm.

Danny's storm track shifts to the east


The latest projections from the NHC show that Tropical Storm Danny's storm track has shifted more to the east. Eastern Long Island is still in the cone of uncertainty but now the coastline from North Carolina to New York is not. This does not mean that these areas a free of danger. Remember that the cone of uncertainty reflect the prediction of where the eye of the storm will travel. North Carolina, Virginia, Delaware and New Jersey will most likely see tropical storm force winds and heavy rain as Danny passes their coastlines.

Danny's path is starting to resemble that of Hurricane Bill as I stated in my last post. Remember that even though the mid-Atlantic coasts did not receive a direct hot or even a glancing blow from Bill, several people were killed as a result of this storm and the storm surge it produced. It would be prudent to expect that Danny will have at least a similar impact.


TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm DANNY

TSR has started issuing land fall alerts on Tropical Storm Danny. Projections are that Danny will become a hurricane in the next 12 - 24 hours as the shearing winds in the area die down. The probablility for Danny to make landfall in the U Sis listed below - danny may potentially threaten teh US coast anywhere from North Carolina to Long Island between today and the weekend.
 
Long Island and the New York metropolitan area is expected to feel at least some of the effects of Danny Saturday night and Sunday.
 

 
Storm Alert issued at 27 Aug, 2009 9:00 GMT
 
Tropical Storm DANNY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
 
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    the United States
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
    Bangor (44.5 N, 68.5 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 93 hours
    Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
    Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
    Montauk (41.0 N, 72.2 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

 

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Danny may threaten the U.S. East Coast (AccuWeather)

AccuWeather Video: Tropical Update

Danny may threaten the U.S. east coast. Ignacio weakening

This broadcast provides a rather detailed discussion of the steering forces that will direct Danny in the next few days.

Tropical Storm Danny forms near the Bahamas



Tropical Storm Danny formed today just east of the Bahamas. The storm track for Danny shows a potential threat from North Carolina all the way up to the Canadian Maritimes. Right now the far western edge of the cone of uncertainty includes New York City during the weekend. Danny will be following a path similar to that of Hurricane Bill except that Danny's path will be shifted closer to the east coast.

Danny a Threat from North Carolina to Nova Scotia (AccuWeather)

The forecast path released by the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center continues to show Danny passing just east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina Friday night before strengthening into a hurricane and making landfall over southeastern New England late Saturday or Saturday night.

There is still a chance that Danny tracks farther west, moving over the Outer Banks. There is also a chance the storm heads farther to the east like Bill, missing New England and never making landfall along the East Coast.

At this point the storm track could shift either to the east or west the effects of which could be very different. The wind forecasts aer also calling for Danny to be a hurricane by the weekend as well - right around the time that he could be threatening the coast.

The water along the coast is very warm and by the end of the week the shearing winds will be very light. This combination is just right to allow strengthening of a storm to a hurricane.

Monday, August 24, 2009

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm BILL

Storm Alert issued at 24 Aug, 2009 9:00 GMT (Final Warning)
 
Tropical Storm BILL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
 
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 100% in about 45 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for TS is 90% in about 45 hours
    Scotland
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Wales
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    the Faeroe Islands
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    St John's (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 45 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 45 hours
    Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 45 hours
    Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 45 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours
    Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)
        probability for TS is 95% in about 45 hours
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.4 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Lerwick (60.2 N, 1.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours
    Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours
    Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    Torshavn (62.0 N, 6.8 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    Manchester (53.5 N, 2.3 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    York (54.2 N, 1.5 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Norway
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Birmingham (52.5 N, 1.9 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
    Hull (53.8 N, 0.1 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

What is an extratropical storm?

According to the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Bill will be an extratropical cyclone by tomorrow afternoon. Bill will cross the Atlantic in a couple of days and should remain an extratropical storm most of the trip across. He will strike Scotland as a extratropical depression sometime on Wednesday.






But what exactly is an extra-tropical cyclone?

Extratropical storms are major weather makers (USA Today)

The extratropical storm's center is an area of low atmospheric pressure with winds going counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, clockwise south of the equator. The winds pulls cold air toward the equator from the polar regions and bring warm air toward the poles. The clash of warm and cold air leads to the widespread precipitation the storms bring.

--snip--

How extratropical and tropical storms differ:

Tropical cyclone

  • Forms over a tropical ocean.
  • Center of storm is warmer than the surrounding air.
  • Has no fronts.
  • Strongest winds are near the Earth's surface.

Extratropical cyclone

  • Forms outside the tropics.
  • Center of storm is colder than the surrounding air.
  • Has fronts.

Strongest winds in the upper atmosphere.

It appears that Hurricane Bill will become an exratropical storm by combining with the front that kept it off the east coast, driving across in colder water and transforming its character from thermal dissipation to a system that is temperature and pressure dependent.

Extratropical cyclone (Wikipedia)

Extratropical transition

Tropical cyclones often transform into extratropical cyclones at the end of their tropical existence, usually between 30° and 40° latitude, where there is sufficient forcing from upper-level troughs or shortwaves riding the Westerlies for the process of extratropical transition to begin. During extratropical transition, the cyclone
begins to tilt back into the colder airmass with height, and the cyclone's primary energy source converts from the release of latent heat from condensation (from thunderstorms near the center) to baroclinic processes. The low pressure system eventually loses its warm core and becomes a cold-core system. During this process, a cyclone in extratropical transition (known in Canada as the post-tropical stage) will invariably form or connect with nearby fronts and/or troughs consistent with a baroclinic system. Due to this, the size of the system will usually appear to increase, while the core weakens. However, after transition is complete, the storm may re-strengthen due to baroclinic energy, depending on the environmental conditions surrounding the system. The cyclone will also distort in shape, becoming less symmetric with time.

On rare occasions, an extratropical cyclone can transit into a tropical cyclone if it reaches an area of ocean with warmer waters and an environment with less vertical
wind shear.

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane BILL

Storm Alert issued at 23 Aug, 2009 21:00 GMT
 
Hurricane BILL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
 
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
        probability for TS is 100% currently
    St. Pierre and Miquelon
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Scotland
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    St John's (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
        probability for TS is 70% currently
    Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours
    Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    England
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Wales
        probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.4 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
    Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
    Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
    Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
    Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
    Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
    Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
    Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
    York (54.2 N, 1.5 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
    Manchester (53.5 N, 2.3 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Fwd: TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane BILL

Storm Alert issued at 23 Aug, 2009 9:00 GMT
 
Hurricane BILL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
 
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 9 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    St. Pierre and Miquelon
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Ireland
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Northern Ireland
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours
    Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    St John's (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
    Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
    Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 69 hours
    Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours
    Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 69 hours
    Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)
        probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours
    Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Wales
        probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
    Scotland
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
    England
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
    the United States
        probability for TS is 35% within 9 hours
    the Isle of Man
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)
        probability for TS is 50% in about 93 hours
    Fishguard (51.9 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours
    Lands End (50.1 N, 5.6 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
    Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours
    Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Hurricane Bill passing Nova Scotia

Hurricane Bill has moved away from New England and is beginning its assault on Nova Scotia this morning. Bill still has 85 MPH winds so no further weakening has been detected so far. Bill's forward speed has picked up considerably. Bill is now moving at a very rapid 31 MPH to the northeast.

Bill will pass along the southern coast of Nova Scotia today and will pass or make landfall on the island of Newfoundland late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

Brunt of Bill to Hit Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Still Rough for Easterners (AccuWeather)

Southern Nova Scotia, including Halifax, will be hardest-hit by Bill. He will move extremely close to the shoreline of southern Nova Scotia early this afternoon into this evening.

Bill is expected to weaken to a tropical storm before making landfall over Newfoundland tonight. The storm will only deliver a quick blow to Newfoundland as the storm accelerates even more overnight into Monday morning. Bill will transition into an extratropical system by Monday afternoon.

Southern Nova Scotia and perhaps the coast of southern Newfoundland for a short time will endure hurricane-force gusts over 74 mph today into tonight, even though Bill will be weakening after moving over cooler water. Waves can reach 25 feet or higher, and buckets of rain will be unleashed.

The Grand Banks, Newfoundland, is a heavy commercial fishing and oil production area. Bill will be weakening as he passes to the north of the oil fields on Monday. Still, strong winds and seas building to 20 feet or higher could impact the area. The stormy conditions will diminish there by late Monday morning.
Rip tides remain a major issue for beaches along the northern US. Many beaches from Delaware to Massachusetts were closed yesteday due to the dangerous surf. In some areas where the beaches did allow swimming, such as in southern New Jersey, only the most skilled surfers were brave enough to venture into the water.

The rip tides did claim one life in Florida. (AccuWeather ...continued)

Meanwhile, beaches all along the east coast of the United States will still
be dealing with rough waves and the threat of rip currents, which take a while
to subside after a hurricanes passes through the western Atlantic.

Swimmers and boaters are urged to use extreme caution if they must go into the water. Heed any warnings of lifeguards to keep you and your family safe. It is also not advised to stand near rocky coastlines as more large waves could still crash
over these areas and threaten lives.

The dangerous surf claimed the life of one 54-year-old man in New Smyma Beach, Fla., near Daytona Beach, on Saturday afternoon. Strong rip currents also forced lifeguards in Wrightsville Beach, N.C., to make 50 rescues.


The storm predictions show that Bill will turn extratropical by Monday afternoon but look like they will retain enough organization to remain an entity (for lack of a better term) all the way across the Atlantic. Teh extratropical cylonic storm looks like it could actually hit Scotland later in the week.

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Tropical Storm Hilda forms in the eastern Pacific



Tropical Storm Hilda formed Saturday afternoon in the eastern Pacific Ocean. A quick look at the projected storm track shows that Hilda is a repeat of Tropical Storm Enrique. Tropical Storm Enrique followed essentially an identical storm track as a tropical storm in the beginning of August.

The effect of Enrique was to increase the surf on the southern beaches of the Big Island. Enrique was then followed by Felicia which grew to a category 4 storm and then fell apart just as she was hitting into Maui County, Hawaii.

Hilda has two areas of unsettled weather located to the east of it showing some potential of developing. Time will tell if these storms will also follow Hilda or fall apart. The water temperatures in the area are warm enough to promote development at least to a tropical storm status for all three storms but I do not know if shearing winds are going to interefere with development or promote it.

Hurricane Bill downgraded to Category 1

Hurricane Bill is weakening at a rate that appears to be quicker than originally ex[ected. Earlier projections indicated that Bill could be a Category 2 storm until after he passed New England. Instead, Bill's winds have already dropped in speed to 85 MPH while Bill is essentially even with New York and Connecticut/Rhode Island.

Forecasters Downgrade Hurricane Bill to a Category 1 Storm (Fox News)

On Saturday evening, Bill had maximum sustained winds near 85 mph and was about 300 miles south-southeast of Nantucket, Mass., and about 585 miles south-southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.

A tropical storm warning was issued Saturday for Massachusetts, including the islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard, meaning tropical storm-force winds of 40 mph or more could hit the coastline in the next 24 hours.



Hurricane Bill Weakens, Heads to Canadian Maritimes (Bloomberg)
The storm had sustained winds of 85 miles (140 kilometers) per hour, making it a Category 1 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami. It was about 255 miles south-southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, and moving north at about 24 miles per hour, the center said today in its 8 p.m. advisory. The storm is about 550 miles south-southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

Hurricane Bill, which was a Category 4 storm at midweek, was lowered to the Category 1 status today and is expected to keep losing strength as it passes by Nova Scotia, Cape Breton and Newfoundland tomorrow, AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alan Reppert said in an interview.

“We now believe it is not going to strengthen anymore,” said Peter Bowyer at the Canadian Hurricane Centre in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, on a conference call today with reporters. “It should hold its strength for the next 10 to 12 hours and then start to weaken as it moves through our district.”

TSR Storm Alert - Hurricane BILL

Storm Alert issued at 22 Aug, 2009 21:00 GMT
 
Hurricane BILL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
 
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Canada
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 21 hours
        probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    St. Pierre and Miquelon
        probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
    the United States
        probability for TS is 85% within 9 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
    Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
    Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
    St John's (47.6 N, 52.7 W)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 33 hours
    Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)
        probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours
    Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)
        probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours
    Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)
        probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)
        probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours
    Bangor (44.5 N, 68.5 W)
        probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/


This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre. TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

Latest update on Hurricane Bill

Tropical storm warnings for Massachusetts (The Weather Channel)

Maximum winds remain at 105 mph making it a category 2 hurricane, but these winds are nearer the center. Tropical storm force winds however, extend outward up to 275 miles from the center, making Bill a large hurricane.

Later today and tonight, Bill will be making its closest pass to the southeast Massachusetts coast, include Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Martha's Vineyard and some of the tropical storm force winds could reach these areas. A Tropical Storm Warning has been posted for these areas where winds could exceed 40 mph.

The worse of the impacts have already occurred in Bermuda, and hurricane watches have been dropped. Tropical storm warnings will remain however as some squally weather and high waves will still be felt this morning.

Hurricane Bill will rapidly skirt past Nova Scotia later Sunday, and then move northeast out into the North Atlantic.


Video: Bill poses Danger to East Coast (The Weather Channel)

Big Bill to Batter Cape Cod through Canadian Maritimes (AccuWeather)


Hurricane Bill is currently a Category 2 storm, and is not expected to strengthen much if at all today as he moves northward, paralleling the East coast. The large hurricane's impacts will be far-reaching into eastern New England, but the biggest blow will be delivered to the Canadian Maritimes.The storm will cruise the waters east of Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard late tonight into early Sunday as a Category 2 storm, battering these areas with winds between 30 and 50 mph.

While these winds will be equal to a strong nor'easter, they can still cause damage. Trees could be snapped, while power lines, traffic signs and lights could be blown down.

--snip--

Maximum wave heights are expected to approach 20 feet just offshore of southeastern Massachusetts tonight into Sunday. The battering waves will make it extremely dangerous for swimmers and boaters alike, and ferry traffic will be disrupted as a result.

The circulation around Bill as he approaches and then moves off to the northeast will cause water to pile up in Cape Cod Bay. This area will likely experience the worst of the coastal flooding in New England. Rainfall of between 2-4 inches will add to the potentially life-threatening flooding.

The Canadian Maritimes, including Halifax, Nova Scotia and St. John's, Newfoundland, will be hardest hit. Big Bill will make landfall in southeastern Nova Scotia as a Category 1 storm early Sunday afternoon.

The area from coastal Nova Scotia to much of Newfoundland will endure hurricane-force gusts over 74 mph, even though Bill will be weakening after moving over cooler water and land. Wind gusts could reach up to 100 mph in this zone. Waves can reach 25 feet or higher and buckets of rain will be unleashed

Surfers taking advantage of high swells

OK yes, Hurricane Bill does offer really good surf along the US coast for surfers to enjoy. While I'm not coordinated enough to stand on a board on dry land, I know many people look to the high waves we will be seeing on the east coast this weekend.

Surf's up, and so is danger, as Bill approaches (The Philadelphia Inquirer)

Hurricane Bill, energized by warm ocean temperatures, agitated the North Atlantic yesterday like a giant plunger, creating waves up to 28 feet near Bermuda. Officials said the waves could go as high as 47 feet in the open sea today.

"It's a very dangerous situation," said Hugh Cobb, marine forecaster for the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Along the Atlantic coast, mariners will encounter waves of up to 12 feet off New Jersey and a daunting 20 feet off Cape Cod today and tonight, Cobb said.

Waves of up to eight feet are expected through tomorrow directly in front of lifeguard stands at the Jersey Shore, where riptides are all but a certainty, according to the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly.

Other than that, it should be a decent day at the Shore. No kidding. Heavy rains are expected inland, where a flash-flood watch has been posted, but along the coast highs are forecast to be in the mid-80s, with light winds and only a chance of showers.


On R.I. coast, surfers answering the call of Hurricane Bill (Providence Journal)

“This” is the ripple effect of Hurricane Bill passing hundreds of miles east of New England this weekend and producing what surfing aficionados are predicting will be some of the best wave-riding conditions in years.

In fact, the water conditions will probably be too large — and too dangerous — for most surfers’ skill levels, cautioned Robert Fox, owner of the Matunuck Surf Shop, who has surfed Rhode Island since the 1960s.

“They’re predicting easily a 10- to 12-foot surf. That’s big,” said Fox, particularly when you consider the average summer wave in Rhode Island is 1 to 2 feet. “I think it’s going to be too big.

“I’ve never seen a bigger swell forecasted around here, and I’ve been surfing here since the 1960s.”

Some communities, such as South Kingstown, are considering closing off sections of shore to surfers and swimmers if the conditions get as big as predicted.

A combination of Bill’s powerful wave-producing winds, this week’s new moon — which causes extreme high and low tides — and the waves’ southeast approach, should mean gigantic waves hitting the shore square on, said Fox.

“These will easily be the best waves of the season,” said Fox. “People are pumped, probably overly so,” because most surfers won’t be able to ride them.


Video: Bill produces big waves and warnings (The Weather Channel)

The point is to not underestimate the effects of a storm as powerful as Bull. Even though the storm will pass a few hundred miles off the coast, the surf will be very dangerous. Unless you are skilled in rough seas, I would strongly recommend staying out of the water.

2010 Atlantic Hurricanes (courtesy of Weatherstreet.com)

NOAA Gulf of Mexico Radar (courtesy of Weatherstreet.com)

NOAA West Atlantic & Caribbean Radar (courtesy of Weatherstreet.com)

NOAA East Atlantic Radar (courtesy of Weatherstreet.com)